Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Slavia Sofia preview
In the fixture between Lokomotiv Plovdiv and Slavia Sofia, the 1X2 probabilities show Lokomotiv Plovdiv at 39%, with the most likely scoreline being 1-0 at 13%. Lokomotiv Plovdiv has won both of their last two encounters against Slavia Sofia, who have yet to secure a win in this matchup.
However, Slavia Sofia's expected goals stand at 0.85, slightly higher than Lokomotiv Plovdiv's 0.68. This could suggest a tighter contest than the probabilities indicate. Additionally, the chances for Over 2.5 goals sit at only 20%, and both teams to score is at 29%, indicating that a low-scoring match is more likely. The recent form of both teams also shows inconsistency, which could affect the outcome.
Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Slavia Sofia: model vs market
| Source | Lokomotiv Plovdiv | Draw | Slavia Sofia |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 26% | 39% | 36% |
| Market | 42% | 30% | 29% |
| Published | 38% | 32% | 30% |
| Edge | -16% | +9% | +7% |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.38, recorded — the top price across the 6 books we record, each at its own last update.
Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Slavia Sofia odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Lokomotiv Plovdiv, 15 snapshots since 2026-10-12.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lokomotiv Plovdiv | 2.08 | 2.23 | +0.15 |
| Draw | 3.10 | 3.12 | +0.02 |
| Slavia Sofia | 3.54 | 3.26 | -0.28 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Lokomotiv Plovdiv and Slavia Sofia expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 1.52
- Attack rating (Lokomotiv Plovdiv / Slavia Sofia)
- 0.61 / 0.74
- Defence rating (Lokomotiv Plovdiv / Slavia Sofia)
- 1.07 / 0.85
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Slavia Sofia score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Lokomotiv Plovdiv goals. Columns: Slavia Sofia goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Slavia Sofia goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 29%
- No goals (0–0)
- 23%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Slavia Sofia
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv | 38% | 2.65 |
| Draw | 32% | 3.12 | |
| Slavia Sofia | 30% | 3.30 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 20% | 5.07 |
| Under 2.5 | 80% | 1.25 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 29% | 3.41 |
| No | 71% | 1.42 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Lokomotiv Plovdiv or draw) | 70% | 1.44 |
| 12 (either side) | 68% | 1.47 | |
| X2 (draw or Slavia Sofia) | 62% | 1.60 | |
| Handicap -1 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv win by 2+ | 8% | 13.31 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Lokomotiv Plovdiv and Slavia Sofia recent form
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
1W 2D 3L
Slavia Sofia
1W 2D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Lokomotiv Plovdiv at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-2
- Win rate
- 40%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 5
- They have won 2 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 0.5 goals per match.
- They average 1.0 goals per game at home against 0.0 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 10 matches.
Slavia Sofia away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-2
- Win rate
- 40%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.60
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 5
- They have won 2 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They average 1.2 goals per game on the road against 0.7 at home.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 10 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Lokomotiv Plovdiv at home only, Slavia Sofia away only.
Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Slavia Sofia head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Lokomotiv Plovdiv 2 · draws 0 · Slavia Sofia 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-08 | Slavia Sofia | 0-2 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv | Bulgaria First League |
| 2025-08-15 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv | 2-1 | Slavia Sofia | Bulgaria First League |
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
- Dunav Ruse vs Spartak Varna — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- Cherno More Varna vs Septemvri Sofia 2026-10-24
- CSKA Sofia v Ludogorets — match page 2026-10-24
- Lokomotiv Sofia vs Botev Vratsa 2026-10-24
- CSKA 1948 v Botev Plovdiv — match page 2026-10-24
- Arda Kardzhali vs Levski Sofia — team news & stats 2026-10-24
Before and after this match
- Lokomotiv Plovdiv, previous: Lokomotiv Sofia vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv prediction
- Slavia Sofia, previous: Botev Plovdiv vs Slavia Sofia prediction