Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Ludogorets preview
In the fixture between Lokomotiv Plovdiv and Ludogorets, the 1X2 probabilities show Lokomotiv Plovdiv at 14%, draw at 24%, and Ludogorets at 62%. The most likely scoreline from our model is 0-1, which occurs at a rate of 16%.
Lokomotiv Plovdiv has an expected goals figure of 0.61, while Ludogorets stands at 1.72. Recent form favors Ludogorets, with 4 wins in their last 6 matches compared to Lokomotiv Plovdiv's 1 win. While the model suggests a 41% chance for Over 2.5 goals and a 38% chance for both teams to score, a surprising performance from Lokomotiv Plovdiv could change the expected outcome.
Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Ludogorets: model vs market
| Source | Lokomotiv Plovdiv | Draw | Ludogorets |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 16% | 30% | 54% |
| Market | 13% | 23% | 64% |
| Published | 14% | 25% | 61% |
| Edge | +1% | +2% | -2% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.40 vs 0.64.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.47, recorded — the top price across the 7 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -9.7% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Ludogorets odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Ludogorets, 3 snapshots since 2026-10-26.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lokomotiv Plovdiv | 6.37 | 7.20 | +0.83 |
| Draw | 3.88 | 3.92 | +0.04 |
| Ludogorets | 1.50 | 1.44 | -0.06 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Lokomotiv Plovdiv and Ludogorets expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.04
- Attack rating (Lokomotiv Plovdiv / Ludogorets)
- 0.57 / 1.38
- Defence rating (Lokomotiv Plovdiv / Ludogorets)
- 0.96 / 0.85
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Ludogorets score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Lokomotiv Plovdiv goals. Columns: Ludogorets goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Ludogorets goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 37%
- No goals (0–0)
- 14%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Ludogorets
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv | 14% | 7.39 |
| Draw | 25% | 4.00 | |
| Ludogorets | 61% | 1.63 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 34% | 2.98 |
| Under 2.5 | 66% | 1.50 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 37% | 2.71 |
| No | 63% | 1.58 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Lokomotiv Plovdiv or draw) | 39% | 2.59 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.33 | |
| X2 (draw or Ludogorets) | 86% | 1.16 | |
| Handicap -1 | Ludogorets win by 2+ | 28% | 3.59 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 27% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Lokomotiv Plovdiv and Ludogorets recent form
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
1W 3D 2L
Ludogorets
3W 2D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Lokomotiv Plovdiv at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-2-2
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 0.83
- Goals against / match
- 0.83
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 6
- They have won 2 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 0.5 goals per match.
- They average 1.0 goals per game at home against 0.2 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 11 matches.
Ludogorets away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-1-1
- Win rate
- 60%
- Goals for / match
- 1.60
- Goals against / match
- 1.20
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 5
- They have won 8 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 2.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- 44% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Lokomotiv Plovdiv at home only, Ludogorets away only.
Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Ludogorets head-to-head
Last 4 meetings: Lokomotiv Plovdiv 0 · draws 3 · Ludogorets 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-18 | Ludogorets | 1-0 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv | Bulgaria First League |
| 2026-05-29 | Ludogorets | 0-0 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv | Bulgaria First League |
| 2026-03-02 | Ludogorets | 1-1 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv | Bulgaria First League |
| 2025-09-14 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv | 1-1 | Ludogorets | Bulgaria First League |
Other Matchday 14 fixtures
- CSKA 1948 vs Spartak Varna 2026-10-30
- Lokomotiv Sofia vs Botev Plovdiv — team news & stats 2026-10-30
- Dunav Ruse v Levski Sofia — match page 2026-10-31
- CSKA Sofia vs Slavia Sofia 2026-10-31
- Cherno More Varna vs Botev Vratsa — team news & stats 2026-11-02
- Arda Kardzhali v Septemvri Sofia — match page 2026-11-02
Before and after this match
- Lokomotiv Plovdiv, previous: Lokomotiv Plovdiv – Slavia Sofia, 2026-10-26
- Lokomotiv Plovdiv, next: Botev Vratsa v Lokomotiv Plovdiv analysis
- Ludogorets, previous: CSKA Sofia vs Ludogorets prediction
- Ludogorets, next: Ludogorets – CSKA 1948, 2026-11-07