Botev Vratsa vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv preview
In the fixture between Botev Vratsa and Lokomotiv Plovdiv, the 1X2 probabilities show Botev Vratsa at 46%, while Lokomotiv Plovdiv stands at 22%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 1-0, with a 15% chance. Botev Vratsa has an expected goals figure of 1.22, compared to Lokomotiv Plovdiv's 0.77, indicating a potential edge for the home side.
However, the recent form could complicate matters. Botev Vratsa has recorded D-L-D-D-W-L in their last six matches, while Lokomotiv Plovdiv has D-D-L-W-L-L. Additionally, both teams to score has a probability of 39%, and Over 2.5 goals is at 32%. This suggests that while Botev Vratsa may have the upper hand, unpredictability remains.
Botev Vratsa vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv: model vs market
| Source | Botev Vratsa | Draw | Lokomotiv Plovdiv |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 43% | 35% | 23% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 43% | 35% | 23% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.09 vs 0.72.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Botev Vratsa and Lokomotiv Plovdiv expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 1.81
- Attack rating (Botev Vratsa / Lokomotiv Plovdiv)
- 0.87 / 0.57
- Defence rating (Botev Vratsa / Lokomotiv Plovdiv)
- 1.18 / 0.96
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Botev Vratsa vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Botev Vratsa goals. Columns: Lokomotiv Plovdiv goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Botev Vratsa vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 35%
- No goals (0–0)
- 18%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Botev Vratsa vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Botev Vratsa | 43% | 2.34 |
| Draw | 35% | 2.90 | |
| Lokomotiv Plovdiv | 23% | 4.41 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 27% | 3.67 |
| Under 2.5 | 73% | 1.37 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 35% | 2.83 |
| No | 65% | 1.55 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Botev Vratsa or draw) | 77% | 1.29 |
| 12 (either side) | 65% | 1.53 | |
| X2 (draw or Lokomotiv Plovdiv) | 57% | 1.75 | |
| Handicap -1 | Botev Vratsa win by 2+ | 18% | 5.48 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 25% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Botev Vratsa and Lokomotiv Plovdiv recent form
Botev Vratsa
1W 3D 2L
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
1W 3D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Botev Vratsa at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-2-2
- Win rate
- 20%
- Goals for / match
- 0.40
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 5
- They have won 2 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They average 1.2 goals per game on the road against 0.4 at home.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 11 matches.
Lokomotiv Plovdiv away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-1-5
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.17
- Goals against / match
- 1.50
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 6
- They have won 2 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 0.5 goals per match.
- They average 1.0 goals per game at home against 0.2 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 11 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Botev Vratsa at home only, Lokomotiv Plovdiv away only.
Botev Vratsa vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Botev Vratsa 0 · draws 0 · Lokomotiv Plovdiv 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-22 | Botev Vratsa | 1-2 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv | Bulgaria First League |
| 2025-10-17 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv | 3-0 | Botev Vratsa | Bulgaria First League |
Other Matchday 13 fixtures
- Septemvri Sofia v Lokomotiv Sofia — match page 2026-11-06
- Botev Plovdiv v Dunav Ruse — match page 2026-11-06
- Slavia Sofia vs Cherno More Varna 2026-11-07
- Ludogorets vs CSKA 1948 2026-11-07
- Spartak Varna vs Arda Kardzhali 2026-11-08
- Levski Sofia vs CSKA Sofia — team news & stats 2026-11-08
Before and after this match
- Botev Vratsa, previous: Cherno More Varna – Botev Vratsa, 2026-11-02
- Lokomotiv Plovdiv, previous: Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Ludogorets: odds and pick