Levski Sofia vs CSKA Sofia preview
In the fixture between Levski Sofia and CSKA Sofia, the 1X2 probabilities show Levski Sofia at 48%, while CSKA Sofia is at 25%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, with a 10% chance according to our model. Levski Sofia has an expected goals figure of 1.58, compared to CSKA Sofia's 1.09, suggesting a potential edge for the home side.
However, both teams to score stands at 54%, indicating that CSKA Sofia could find the net. Recent form shows Levski Sofia with 3 wins in their last 5 matches, while CSKA Sofia also has 3 wins but with more draws. This recent performance could influence the outcome, making it a competitive match.
Levski Sofia vs CSKA Sofia: model vs market
| Source | Levski Sofia | Draw | CSKA Sofia |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 48% | 27% | 25% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 48% | 27% | 25% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.58 vs 1.09.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Levski Sofia and CSKA Sofia expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.67
- Attack rating (Levski Sofia / CSKA Sofia)
- 1.19 / 1.51
- Defence rating (Levski Sofia / CSKA Sofia)
- 0.68 / 1.02
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Levski Sofia vs CSKA Sofia score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Levski Sofia goals. Columns: CSKA Sofia goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Levski Sofia vs CSKA Sofia goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 54%
- No goals (0–0)
- 8%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Levski Sofia vs CSKA Sofia
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Levski Sofia | 48% | 2.10 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.64 | |
| CSKA Sofia | 25% | 4.02 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 50% | 2.01 |
| Under 2.5 | 50% | 1.99 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54% | 1.86 |
| No | 46% | 2.16 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Levski Sofia or draw) | 75% | 1.33 |
| 12 (either side) | 73% | 1.38 | |
| X2 (draw or CSKA Sofia) | 52% | 1.91 | |
| Handicap -1 | Levski Sofia win by 2+ | 25% | 3.95 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
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Levski Sofia and CSKA Sofia recent form
Levski Sofia
3W 2D 1L
CSKA Sofia
3W 2D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Levski Sofia at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 5-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 2.80
- Goals against / match
- 0.20
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 5
- They have won 9 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 2.3 goals per match.
- They average 2.8 goals per game at home against 1.8 on the road.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 8 matches.
CSKA Sofia away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-3-0
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.67
- Goals against / match
- 0.67
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 6
- They have won 8 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 2.5 goals per match.
- They average 3.4 goals per game at home against 1.7 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 48% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Levski Sofia at home only, CSKA Sofia away only.
Levski Sofia vs CSKA Sofia head-to-head
Last 4 meetings: Levski Sofia 2 · draws 1 · CSKA Sofia 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-16 | Levski Sofia | 2-0 | CSKA Sofia | Bulgaria First League |
| 2026-04-25 | CSKA Sofia | 1-3 | Levski Sofia | Bulgaria First League |
| 2026-04-13 | CSKA Sofia | 1-1 | Levski Sofia | Bulgaria First League |
| 2025-11-08 | Levski Sofia | 0-1 | CSKA Sofia | Bulgaria First League |
Other Matchday 13 fixtures
- Septemvri Sofia v Lokomotiv Sofia — match page 2026-11-06
- Botev Plovdiv v Dunav Ruse — match page 2026-11-06
- Botev Vratsa vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- Slavia Sofia vs Cherno More Varna 2026-11-07
- Ludogorets vs CSKA 1948 2026-11-07
- Spartak Varna vs Arda Kardzhali 2026-11-08
Before and after this match
- Levski Sofia, previous: Levski Sofia v Jagiellonia analysis
- CSKA Sofia, previous: Panathinaikos – CSKA Sofia, 2026-11-05