Septemvri Sofia vs Lokomotiv Sofia preview
In the fixture between Septemvri Sofia and Lokomotiv Sofia, the 1X2 probabilities show Septemvri Sofia at 37%, a draw at 28%, and Lokomotiv Sofia at 35%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, which has a 9% probability. Both teams have struggled recently, with Septemvri Sofia recording four losses and one draw in their last five matches, while Lokomotiv Sofia has two draws and three mixed results.
The model predicts a 53% chance of Over 2.5 goals and a 58% chance for both teams to score. Expected goals are close, with Septemvri Sofia at 1.43 and Lokomotiv Sofia at 1.38. A lack of scoring form or defensive errors could lead to a different outcome than anticipated.
Septemvri Sofia vs Lokomotiv Sofia: model vs market
| Source | Septemvri Sofia | Draw | Lokomotiv Sofia |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 38% | 28% | 35% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 38% | 28% | 35% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Septemvri Sofia and Lokomotiv Sofia expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.81
- Attack rating (Septemvri Sofia / Lokomotiv Sofia)
- 0.90 / 0.92
- Defence rating (Septemvri Sofia / Lokomotiv Sofia)
- 1.41 / 1.21
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Septemvri Sofia vs Lokomotiv Sofia score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Septemvri Sofia goals. Columns: Lokomotiv Sofia goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Septemvri Sofia vs Lokomotiv Sofia goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 58%
- No goals (0–0)
- 7%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Septemvri Sofia vs Lokomotiv Sofia
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Septemvri Sofia | 38% | 2.66 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.62 | |
| Lokomotiv Sofia | 35% | 2.87 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 53% | 1.88 |
| Under 2.5 | 47% | 2.14 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 58% | 1.72 |
| No | 42% | 2.39 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Septemvri Sofia or draw) | 65% | 1.54 |
| 12 (either side) | 72% | 1.38 | |
| X2 (draw or Lokomotiv Sofia) | 62% | 1.60 | |
| Handicap -1 | Septemvri Sofia win by 2+ | 18% | 5.48 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Septemvri Sofia and Lokomotiv Sofia recent form
Septemvri Sofia
1W 1D 4L
Lokomotiv Sofia
1W 3D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Septemvri Sofia at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-4
- Win rate
- 17%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 2.17
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 6
- They have won 2 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 11 matches.
Lokomotiv Sofia away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-4-1
- Win rate
- 17%
- Goals for / match
- 1.33
- Goals against / match
- 1.50
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 6
- They have won 1 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.3 goals per game on the road against 0.8 at home.
League matches this season before kick-off: Septemvri Sofia at home only, Lokomotiv Sofia away only.
Septemvri Sofia vs Lokomotiv Sofia head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Septemvri Sofia 1 · draws 1 · Lokomotiv Sofia 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-27 | Lokomotiv Sofia | 1-1 | Septemvri Sofia | Bulgaria First League |
| 2026-03-17 | Lokomotiv Sofia | 3-0 | Septemvri Sofia | Bulgaria First League |
| 2025-08-29 | Septemvri Sofia | 1-0 | Lokomotiv Sofia | Bulgaria First League |
Other Matchday 13 fixtures
- Botev Plovdiv v Dunav Ruse — match page 2026-11-06
- Botev Vratsa vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- Slavia Sofia vs Cherno More Varna 2026-11-07
- Ludogorets vs CSKA 1948 2026-11-07
- Spartak Varna vs Arda Kardzhali 2026-11-08
- Levski Sofia vs CSKA Sofia — team news & stats 2026-11-08
Before and after this match
- Septemvri Sofia, previous: Arda Kardzhali v Septemvri Sofia analysis
- Lokomotiv Sofia, previous: Lokomotiv Sofia vs Botev Plovdiv prediction