Slavia Sofia vs Cherno More Varna preview
In the fixture between Slavia Sofia and Cherno More Varna, the 1X2 probabilities indicate a 50% chance for Slavia Sofia to win, while Cherno More Varna has a 20% chance. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, with a 14% probability. Slavia Sofia has an expected goals figure of 1.44 compared to Cherno More Varna's 0.83, suggesting a stronger attacking performance.
However, the match could deviate from the prediction if both teams score, which our model estimates at 44%. Cherno More Varna's recent form shows they have struggled, with 4 losses in their last 6 matches. If they can improve their performance, it might challenge Slavia Sofia's chances of a clean sheet.
Slavia Sofia vs Cherno More Varna: model vs market
| Source | Slavia Sofia | Draw | Cherno More Varna |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 49% | 31% | 20% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 49% | 31% | 20% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.32 vs 0.74.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Slavia Sofia and Cherno More Varna expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.06
- Attack rating (Slavia Sofia / Cherno More Varna)
- 0.67 / 0.92
- Defence rating (Slavia Sofia / Cherno More Varna)
- 0.76 / 1.50
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Slavia Sofia vs Cherno More Varna score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Slavia Sofia goals. Columns: Cherno More Varna goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Slavia Sofia vs Cherno More Varna goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 40%
- No goals (0–0)
- 14%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Slavia Sofia vs Cherno More Varna
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Slavia Sofia | 49% | 2.03 |
| Draw | 31% | 3.22 | |
| Cherno More Varna | 20% | 5.07 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 34% | 2.94 |
| Under 2.5 | 66% | 1.51 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 40% | 2.53 |
| No | 60% | 1.66 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Slavia Sofia or draw) | 80% | 1.25 |
| 12 (either side) | 69% | 1.45 | |
| X2 (draw or Cherno More Varna) | 51% | 1.97 | |
| Handicap -1 | Slavia Sofia win by 2+ | 24% | 4.17 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 25% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
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Slavia Sofia and Cherno More Varna recent form
Slavia Sofia
1W 2D 3L
Cherno More Varna
1W 2D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Slavia Sofia at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-4-2
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.67
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 6
- They have won 2 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 11 matches.
Cherno More Varna away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-2-4
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.67
- Goals against / match
- 1.83
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 6
- They have won 1 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.4 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 11 matches.
- 39% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Slavia Sofia at home only, Cherno More Varna away only.
Slavia Sofia vs Cherno More Varna head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Slavia Sofia 1 · draws 1 · Cherno More Varna 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-05 | Cherno More Varna | 1-3 | Slavia Sofia | Bulgaria First League |
| 2025-10-25 | Slavia Sofia | 0-0 | Cherno More Varna | Bulgaria First League |
Other Matchday 13 fixtures
- Septemvri Sofia v Lokomotiv Sofia — match page 2026-11-06
- Botev Plovdiv v Dunav Ruse — match page 2026-11-06
- Botev Vratsa vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- Ludogorets vs CSKA 1948 2026-11-07
- Spartak Varna vs Arda Kardzhali 2026-11-08
- Levski Sofia vs CSKA Sofia — team news & stats 2026-11-08
Before and after this match
- Slavia Sofia, previous: CSKA Sofia v Slavia Sofia analysis
- Cherno More Varna, previous: Cherno More Varna – Botev Vratsa, 2026-11-02