Spartak Varna vs Arda Kardzhali preview
In the fixture between Spartak Varna and Arda Kardzhali, the 1X2 probabilities show Spartak Varna at 39%, while Arda Kardzhali stands at 33%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with a 9% chance according to our model. Both teams to score has a probability of 55%, and Over 2.5 goals sits at 50%.
Spartak Varna's recent form includes 1 win and 4 draws, while Arda Kardzhali has 2 wins and 3 losses. The expected goals are 1.39 for Spartak Varna and 1.27 for Arda Kardzhali. A draw could disrupt the expected outcome, given the close probabilities and recent performances. The confidence grade for this match is C.
Spartak Varna vs Arda Kardzhali: model vs market
| Source | Spartak Varna | Draw | Arda Kardzhali |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 39% | 28% | 33% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 39% | 28% | 33% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Spartak Varna and Arda Kardzhali expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.67
- Attack rating (Spartak Varna / Arda Kardzhali)
- 0.76 / 1.16
- Defence rating (Spartak Varna / Arda Kardzhali)
- 1.04 / 1.40
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Spartak Varna vs Arda Kardzhali score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Spartak Varna goals. Columns: Arda Kardzhali goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Spartak Varna vs Arda Kardzhali goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 55%
- No goals (0–0)
- 8%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Spartak Varna vs Arda Kardzhali
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Spartak Varna | 39% | 2.59 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.52 | |
| Arda Kardzhali | 33% | 3.04 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 50% | 2.01 |
| Under 2.5 | 50% | 1.99 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55% | 1.81 |
| No | 45% | 2.24 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Spartak Varna or draw) | 67% | 1.49 |
| 12 (either side) | 72% | 1.40 | |
| X2 (draw or Arda Kardzhali) | 61% | 1.63 | |
| Handicap -1 | Spartak Varna win by 2+ | 19% | 5.37 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Spartak Varna and Arda Kardzhali recent form
Spartak Varna
1W 3D 2L
Arda Kardzhali
2W 1D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Spartak Varna at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-3-2
- Win rate
- 17%
- Goals for / match
- 0.83
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 6
- They have won 3 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 11 matches.
Arda Kardzhali away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-3
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 6
- They have won 5 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- 39% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Spartak Varna at home only, Arda Kardzhali away only.
Spartak Varna vs Arda Kardzhali head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Spartak Varna 1 · draws 0 · Arda Kardzhali 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-27 | Arda Kardzhali | 1-0 | Spartak Varna | Bulgaria First League |
| 2025-09-13 | Spartak Varna | 3-0 | Arda Kardzhali | Bulgaria First League |
Other Matchday 13 fixtures
- Septemvri Sofia v Lokomotiv Sofia — match page 2026-11-06
- Botev Plovdiv v Dunav Ruse — match page 2026-11-06
- Botev Vratsa vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- Slavia Sofia vs Cherno More Varna 2026-11-07
- Ludogorets vs CSKA 1948 2026-11-07
- Levski Sofia vs CSKA Sofia — team news & stats 2026-11-08
Before and after this match
- Spartak Varna, previous: CSKA 1948 – Spartak Varna, 2026-10-30
- Arda Kardzhali, previous: Arda Kardzhali v Septemvri Sofia analysis