Arda Kardzhali vs Septemvri Sofia: model vs market
| Source | Arda Kardzhali | Draw | Septemvri Sofia |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 55% | 23% | 23% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 55% | 23% | 23% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.14 vs 1.34.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Arda Kardzhali and Septemvri Sofia expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.48
- Attack rating (Arda Kardzhali / Septemvri Sofia)
- 1.16 / 0.90
- Defence rating (Arda Kardzhali / Septemvri Sofia)
- 1.40 / 1.41
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Arda Kardzhali vs Septemvri Sofia score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Arda Kardzhali goals. Columns: Septemvri Sofia goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Arda Kardzhali vs Septemvri Sofia goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 66%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Arda Kardzhali vs Septemvri Sofia
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Arda Kardzhali | 55% | 1.83 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.44 | |
| Septemvri Sofia | 23% | 4.40 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 67% | 1.48 |
| Under 2.5 | 33% | 3.06 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 66% | 1.52 |
| No | 34% | 2.93 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Arda Kardzhali or draw) | 77% | 1.29 |
| 12 (either side) | 77% | 1.29 | |
| X2 (draw or Septemvri Sofia) | 45% | 2.21 | |
| Handicap -1 | Arda Kardzhali win by 2+ | 34% | 2.94 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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| 1 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Arda Kardzhali and Septemvri Sofia recent form
Arda Kardzhali
2W 1D 3L
Septemvri Sofia
1W 1D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Arda Kardzhali at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-1-1
- Win rate
- 60%
- Goals for / match
- 1.80
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 5
- They have won 5 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- 39% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Septemvri Sofia away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-3
- Win rate
- 20%
- Goals for / match
- 0.80
- Goals against / match
- 1.60
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 5
- They have won 2 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 11 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Arda Kardzhali at home only, Septemvri Sofia away only.
Arda Kardzhali vs Septemvri Sofia head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Arda Kardzhali 1 · draws 1 · Septemvri Sofia 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-18 | Septemvri Sofia | 1-1 | Arda Kardzhali | Bulgaria First League |
| 2026-03-21 | Septemvri Sofia | 1-4 | Arda Kardzhali | Bulgaria First League |
| 2025-10-20 | Arda Kardzhali | 0-1 | Septemvri Sofia | Bulgaria First League |
Other Matchday 14 fixtures
- CSKA 1948 vs Spartak Varna 2026-10-30
- Lokomotiv Sofia vs Botev Plovdiv — team news & stats 2026-10-30
- Lokomotiv Plovdiv v Ludogorets — match page 2026-10-31
- Dunav Ruse v Levski Sofia — match page 2026-10-31
- CSKA Sofia vs Slavia Sofia 2026-10-31
- Cherno More Varna vs Botev Vratsa — team news & stats 2026-11-02
Before and after this match
- Arda Kardzhali, previous: Arda Kardzhali vs Levski Sofia prediction
- Arda Kardzhali, next: Spartak Varna vs Arda Kardzhali: odds and pick
- Septemvri Sofia, previous: Cherno More Varna vs Septemvri Sofia: odds and pick
- Septemvri Sofia, next: Septemvri Sofia – Lokomotiv Sofia, 2026-11-06