Cherno More Varna vs Botev Vratsa preview
In the fixture between Cherno More Varna and Botev Vratsa, the 1X2 probabilities show Cherno More Varna at 37%, a draw at 28%, and Botev Vratsa at 35%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with a probability of 8%. The expected goals are close, with Cherno More Varna at 1.42 and Botev Vratsa at 1.38, indicating a competitive match.
Both teams to score has a probability of 58%, while Over 2.5 goals stands at 53%. Recent form shows Cherno More Varna with 1 win in their last 5 matches, while Botev Vratsa has 1 win in their last 5 as well. The head-to-head record shows Cherno More Varna has not won against Botev Vratsa in their last 3 encounters, which could influence the outcome.
Cherno More Varna vs Botev Vratsa: model vs market
| Source | Cherno More Varna | Draw | Botev Vratsa |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 37% | 28% | 35% |
| Market | 46% | 28% | 25% |
| Published | 44% | 28% | 28% |
| Edge | -2% | 0% | +2% |
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.99, recorded — the top price across the 1 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -12.4% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Cherno More Varna and Botev Vratsa expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.80
- Attack rating (Cherno More Varna / Botev Vratsa)
- 0.92 / 0.87
- Defence rating (Cherno More Varna / Botev Vratsa)
- 1.50 / 1.18
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Cherno More Varna vs Botev Vratsa score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Cherno More Varna goals. Columns: Botev Vratsa goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Cherno More Varna vs Botev Vratsa goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 58%
- No goals (0–0)
- 7%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Cherno More Varna vs Botev Vratsa
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Cherno More Varna | 44% | 2.27 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.55 | |
| Botev Vratsa | 28% | 3.60 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 53% | 1.88 |
| Under 2.5 | 47% | 2.13 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 58% | 1.72 |
| No | 42% | 2.38 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Cherno More Varna or draw) | 72% | 1.38 |
| 12 (either side) | 72% | 1.39 | |
| X2 (draw or Botev Vratsa) | 56% | 1.79 | |
| Handicap -1 | Cherno More Varna win by 2+ | 18% | 5.56 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Cherno More Varna and Botev Vratsa recent form
Cherno More Varna
1W 2D 3L
Botev Vratsa
1W 3D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Cherno More Varna at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-3
- Win rate
- 20%
- Goals for / match
- 1.40
- Goals against / match
- 2.20
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 5
- They have won 1 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.4 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 11 matches.
- 39% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Botev Vratsa away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-2-4
- Win rate
- 14%
- Goals for / match
- 1.14
- Goals against / match
- 2.29
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 7
- They have won 2 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They average 1.2 goals per game on the road against 0.4 at home.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 11 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Cherno More Varna at home only, Botev Vratsa away only.
Cherno More Varna vs Botev Vratsa head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Cherno More Varna 0 · draws 2 · Botev Vratsa 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-19 | Botev Vratsa | 1-1 | Cherno More Varna | Bulgaria First League |
| 2026-02-20 | Cherno More Varna | 0-0 | Botev Vratsa | Bulgaria First League |
| 2025-08-29 | Botev Vratsa | 1-0 | Cherno More Varna | Bulgaria First League |
Other Matchday 14 fixtures
- CSKA 1948 vs Spartak Varna 2026-10-30
- Lokomotiv Sofia vs Botev Plovdiv — team news & stats 2026-10-30
- Lokomotiv Plovdiv v Ludogorets — match page 2026-10-31
- Dunav Ruse v Levski Sofia — match page 2026-10-31
- CSKA Sofia vs Slavia Sofia 2026-10-31
- Arda Kardzhali v Septemvri Sofia — match page 2026-11-02
Before and after this match
- Cherno More Varna, previous: Cherno More Varna vs Septemvri Sofia: odds and pick
- Cherno More Varna, next: Slavia Sofia vs Cherno More Varna prediction
- Botev Vratsa, previous: Lokomotiv Sofia v Botev Vratsa analysis
- Botev Vratsa, next: Botev Vratsa v Lokomotiv Plovdiv analysis