Lokomotiv Sofia vs Botev Plovdiv preview
In the fixture between Lokomotiv Sofia and Botev Plovdiv, the 1X2 probabilities show Lokomotiv Sofia at 35%, a draw at 28%, and Botev Plovdiv at 37%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 1-2, with a 9% chance. The expected goals are 1.43 for Lokomotiv Sofia and 1.54 for Botev Plovdiv, indicating a competitive match.
Both teams to score has a probability of 61%, while Over 2.5 goals stands at 57%. Lokomotiv Sofia's recent form shows D-D-W-L-D-L, while Botev Plovdiv has L-W-W-W-W-L. This recent form could impact the outcome, as Botev Plovdiv has shown stronger performances lately.
Lokomotiv Sofia vs Botev Plovdiv: model vs market
| Source | Lokomotiv Sofia | Draw | Botev Plovdiv |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 34% | 27% | 39% |
| Market | 35% | 28% | 37% |
| Published | 35% | 28% | 37% |
| Edge | 0% | 0% | +1% |
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.58, recorded — the top price across the 6 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -3.4% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Lokomotiv Sofia vs Botev Plovdiv odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Botev Plovdiv, 6 snapshots since 2026-10-24.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lokomotiv Sofia | 2.55 | 2.62 | +0.07 |
| Draw | 3.40 | 3.30 | -0.10 |
| Botev Plovdiv | 2.46 | 2.50 | +0.04 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Lokomotiv Sofia and Botev Plovdiv expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.96
- Attack rating (Lokomotiv Sofia / Botev Plovdiv)
- 0.91 / 1.19
- Defence rating (Lokomotiv Sofia / Botev Plovdiv)
- 1.21 / 1.19
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Lokomotiv Sofia vs Botev Plovdiv score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Lokomotiv Sofia goals. Columns: Botev Plovdiv goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Lokomotiv Sofia vs Botev Plovdiv goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 61%
- No goals (0–0)
- 6%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Lokomotiv Sofia vs Botev Plovdiv
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Lokomotiv Sofia | 35% | 2.86 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.62 | |
| Botev Plovdiv | 37% | 2.67 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 57% | 1.76 |
| Under 2.5 | 43% | 2.32 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61% | 1.65 |
| No | 39% | 2.55 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Lokomotiv Sofia or draw) | 63% | 1.60 |
| 12 (either side) | 72% | 1.38 | |
| X2 (draw or Botev Plovdiv) | 65% | 1.54 | |
| Handicap -1 | Botev Plovdiv win by 2+ | 20% | 5.06 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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| 1 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Lokomotiv Sofia and Botev Plovdiv recent form
Lokomotiv Sofia
1W 3D 2L
Botev Plovdiv
4W 0D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Lokomotiv Sofia at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-2-4
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.83
- Goals against / match
- 1.83
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 6
- They have won 1 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.3 goals per game on the road against 0.8 at home.
Botev Plovdiv away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-0-4
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.33
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 6
- They have won 6 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- 43% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Lokomotiv Sofia at home only, Botev Plovdiv away only.
Lokomotiv Sofia vs Botev Plovdiv head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Lokomotiv Sofia 2 · draws 1 · Botev Plovdiv 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-21 | Botev Plovdiv | 1-1 | Lokomotiv Sofia | Bulgaria First League |
| 2025-12-06 | Lokomotiv Sofia | 3-2 | Botev Plovdiv | Bulgaria First League |
| 2025-08-10 | Botev Plovdiv | 0-1 | Lokomotiv Sofia | Bulgaria First League |
Other Matchday 14 fixtures
- CSKA 1948 vs Spartak Varna 2026-10-30
- Lokomotiv Plovdiv v Ludogorets — match page 2026-10-31
- Dunav Ruse v Levski Sofia — match page 2026-10-31
- CSKA Sofia vs Slavia Sofia 2026-10-31
- Cherno More Varna vs Botev Vratsa — team news & stats 2026-11-02
Before and after this match
- Lokomotiv Sofia, previous: Lokomotiv Sofia v Botev Vratsa analysis
- Lokomotiv Sofia, next: Septemvri Sofia – Lokomotiv Sofia, 2026-11-06
- Botev Plovdiv, previous: CSKA 1948 vs Botev Plovdiv: odds and pick
- Botev Plovdiv, next: Botev Plovdiv v Dunav Ruse analysis