CSKA Sofia vs Slavia Sofia preview
In the fixture between CSKA Sofia and Slavia Sofia, CSKA Sofia has a strong 71% chance to win, while Slavia Sofia sits at just 10%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, with a 12% probability. CSKA Sofia's expected goals are 1.68, compared to Slavia Sofia's 0.88, indicating a significant offensive advantage.
However, the match could deviate from this prediction. Both teams to score stands at 49%, suggesting that Slavia Sofia could find the net. Additionally, CSKA Sofia's recent form shows some inconsistency with two draws in their last five matches. This could open the door for a surprise result, despite CSKA Sofia's overall stronger position.
CSKA Sofia vs Slavia Sofia: model vs market
| Source | CSKA Sofia | Draw | Slavia Sofia |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 55% | 26% | 18% |
| Market | 76% | 16% | 8% |
| Published | 71% | 19% | 10% |
| Edge | -5% | +3% | +3% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.68 vs 0.88.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.21, recorded — the top price across the 1 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -14.0% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
CSKA Sofia vs Slavia Sofia odds movement
Median bookmaker price on CSKA Sofia, 2 snapshots since 2026-10-26.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| CSKA Sofia | 1.21 | 1.21 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 5.80 | 5.80 | +0.00 |
| Slavia Sofia | 12.00 | 12.00 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
CSKA Sofia and Slavia Sofia expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.56
- Attack rating (CSKA Sofia / Slavia Sofia)
- 1.51 / 0.74
- Defence rating (CSKA Sofia / Slavia Sofia)
- 1.12 / 0.85
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
CSKA Sofia vs Slavia Sofia score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: CSKA Sofia goals. Columns: Slavia Sofia goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
CSKA Sofia vs Slavia Sofia goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 49%
- No goals (0–0)
- 9%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for CSKA Sofia vs Slavia Sofia
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | CSKA Sofia | 71% | 1.41 |
| Draw | 19% | 5.39 | |
| Slavia Sofia | 10% | 9.65 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 47% | 2.12 |
| Under 2.5 | 53% | 1.90 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 49% | 2.05 |
| No | 51% | 1.95 | |
| Double chance | 1X (CSKA Sofia or draw) | 90% | 1.12 |
| 12 (either side) | 81% | 1.23 | |
| X2 (draw or Slavia Sofia) | 29% | 3.46 | |
| Handicap -1 | CSKA Sofia win by 2+ | 31% | 3.21 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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| 1 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
CSKA Sofia and Slavia Sofia recent form
CSKA Sofia
3W 2D 1L
Slavia Sofia
1W 2D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
CSKA Sofia at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 5-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 3.40
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 5
- They have won 8 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 2.5 goals per match.
- They average 3.4 goals per game at home against 1.7 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 48% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Slavia Sofia away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-2
- Win rate
- 40%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.60
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 5
- They have won 2 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 11 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: CSKA Sofia at home only, Slavia Sofia away only.
CSKA Sofia vs Slavia Sofia head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: CSKA Sofia 1 · draws 2 · Slavia Sofia 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-20 | Slavia Sofia | 0-0 | CSKA Sofia | Bulgaria First League |
| 2026-02-21 | CSKA Sofia | 1-0 | Slavia Sofia | Bulgaria First League |
| 2025-08-30 | Slavia Sofia | 2-2 | CSKA Sofia | Bulgaria First League |
Other Matchday 14 fixtures
- CSKA 1948 vs Spartak Varna 2026-10-30
- Lokomotiv Sofia vs Botev Plovdiv — team news & stats 2026-10-30
- Lokomotiv Plovdiv v Ludogorets — match page 2026-10-31
- Dunav Ruse v Levski Sofia — match page 2026-10-31
- Cherno More Varna vs Botev Vratsa — team news & stats 2026-11-02
Before and after this match
- CSKA Sofia, previous: CSKA Sofia vs Ludogorets prediction
- CSKA Sofia, next: Panathinaikos – CSKA Sofia, 2026-11-05
- Slavia Sofia, previous: Lokomotiv Plovdiv – Slavia Sofia, 2026-10-26
- Slavia Sofia, next: Slavia Sofia vs Cherno More Varna prediction