Dunav Ruse vs Levski Sofia preview
In the fixture between Dunav Ruse and Levski Sofia, the 1X2 probabilities show Levski Sofia at 66% and Dunav Ruse at 13%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 0-1, which occurs at a rate of 10%. Levski Sofia's expected goals stand at 1.60, while Dunav Ruse has an expected goals figure of 1.02.
While both teams to score is at 52%, indicating a decent chance for goals from both sides, the Over 2.5 goals probability is lower at 49%. Dunav Ruse's recent form includes two wins and three draws, while Levski Sofia has three wins and two draws in their last five matches. This recent performance could influence the outcome, making it less predictable.
Dunav Ruse vs Levski Sofia: model vs market
| Source | Dunav Ruse | Draw | Levski Sofia |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 23% | 27% | 50% |
| Market | 10% | 19% | 72% |
| Published | 13% | 21% | 66% |
| Edge | +3% | +2% | -6% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.60 vs 1.02.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.29, recorded — the top price across the 2 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -14.7% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Dunav Ruse vs Levski Sofia odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Levski Sofia, 2 snapshots since 2026-10-26.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dunav Ruse | 9.55 | 9.55 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 4.95 | 4.95 | +0.00 |
| Levski Sofia | 1.29 | 1.29 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Dunav Ruse and Levski Sofia expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.62
- Attack rating (Dunav Ruse / Levski Sofia)
- 1.16 / 1.18
- Defence rating (Dunav Ruse / Levski Sofia)
- 1.27 / 0.68
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Dunav Ruse vs Levski Sofia score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Dunav Ruse goals. Columns: Levski Sofia goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Dunav Ruse vs Levski Sofia goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 52%
- No goals (0–0)
- 8%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Dunav Ruse vs Levski Sofia
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Dunav Ruse | 13% | 7.67 |
| Draw | 21% | 4.80 | |
| Levski Sofia | 66% | 1.51 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 49% | 2.05 |
| Under 2.5 | 51% | 1.95 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 52% | 1.91 |
| No | 48% | 2.10 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Dunav Ruse or draw) | 34% | 2.95 |
| 12 (either side) | 79% | 1.26 | |
| X2 (draw or Levski Sofia) | 87% | 1.15 | |
| Handicap -1 | Levski Sofia win by 2+ | 27% | 3.76 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
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Dunav Ruse and Levski Sofia recent form
Dunav Ruse
2W 2D 2L
Levski Sofia
3W 2D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Dunav Ruse at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-2-3
- Win rate
- 17%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.50
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 6
- They have won 2 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game on the road against 0.8 at home.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 11 matches.
- 43% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Levski Sofia away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-1-0
- Win rate
- 80%
- Goals for / match
- 1.80
- Goals against / match
- 0.60
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 5
- They have won 9 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 2.3 goals per match.
- They average 2.8 goals per game at home against 1.8 on the road.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 8 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Dunav Ruse at home only, Levski Sofia away only.
Dunav Ruse vs Levski Sofia head-to-head
Last 1 meetings: Dunav Ruse 0 · draws 0 · Levski Sofia 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-17 | Levski Sofia | 2-1 | Dunav Ruse | Bulgaria First League |
Other Matchday 14 fixtures
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- Lokomotiv Sofia vs Botev Plovdiv — team news & stats 2026-10-30
- Lokomotiv Plovdiv v Ludogorets — match page 2026-10-31
- CSKA Sofia vs Slavia Sofia 2026-10-31
- Cherno More Varna vs Botev Vratsa — team news & stats 2026-11-02
Before and after this match
- Dunav Ruse, previous: Dunav Ruse v Spartak Varna analysis
- Dunav Ruse, next: Botev Plovdiv v Dunav Ruse analysis
- Levski Sofia, previous: Arda Kardzhali vs Levski Sofia prediction
- Levski Sofia, next: Levski Sofia v Jagiellonia analysis