CSKA Sofia vs Ludogorets preview
In the fixture between CSKA Sofia and Ludogorets, the 1X2 probabilities show CSKA Sofia at 39%, Ludogorets at 33%, and a draw at 27%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 2-1, which occurs with an 8% probability. CSKA Sofia has an expected goals figure of 1.46, while Ludogorets sits at 1.67.
Both teams to score has a 63% chance according to our model, and Over 2.5 goals stands at 61%. CSKA Sofia's recent form shows L-W-D-W-W-D, while Ludogorets has a stronger W-W-W-D-D-W record. The head-to-head results from the last 4 matches favor Ludogorets with 2 wins compared to CSKA Sofia's 1 win and 1 draw. A surprise could come from either team underperforming based on their recent form.
CSKA Sofia vs Ludogorets: model vs market
| Source | CSKA Sofia | Draw | Ludogorets |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 32% | 26% | 42% |
| Market | 40% | 30% | 31% |
| Published | 38% | 29% | 33% |
| Edge | -7% | -4% | +11% |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.38, recorded — the top price across the 6 books we record, each at its own last update.
CSKA Sofia vs Ludogorets odds movement
Median bookmaker price on CSKA Sofia, 15 snapshots since 2026-10-12.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| CSKA Sofia | 2.17 | 2.32 | +0.15 |
| Draw | 3.30 | 3.12 | -0.18 |
| Ludogorets | 3.13 | 3.00 | -0.13 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
CSKA Sofia and Ludogorets expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.13
- Attack rating (CSKA Sofia / Ludogorets)
- 1.47 / 1.50
- Defence rating (CSKA Sofia / Ludogorets)
- 1.04 / 0.76
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
CSKA Sofia vs Ludogorets score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: CSKA Sofia goals. Columns: Ludogorets goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
CSKA Sofia vs Ludogorets goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 63%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for CSKA Sofia vs Ludogorets
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | CSKA Sofia | 38% | 2.64 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.50 | |
| Ludogorets | 33% | 2.99 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 61% | 1.65 |
| Under 2.5 | 39% | 2.54 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63% | 1.58 |
| No | 37% | 2.73 | |
| Double chance | 1X (CSKA Sofia or draw) | 67% | 1.50 |
| 12 (either side) | 71% | 1.40 | |
| X2 (draw or Ludogorets) | 62% | 1.61 | |
| Handicap -1 | CSKA Sofia win by 2+ | 16% | 6.43 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 17% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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CSKA Sofia and Ludogorets recent form
CSKA Sofia
3W 2D 1L
Ludogorets
4W 2D 0L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
CSKA Sofia at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 5-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 3.40
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 5
- They have won 7 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 2.4 goals per match.
- They average 3.4 goals per game at home against 1.4 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 57% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Ludogorets away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-1-0
- Win rate
- 75%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 7 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- 50% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: CSKA Sofia at home only, Ludogorets away only.
CSKA Sofia vs Ludogorets head-to-head
Last 4 meetings: CSKA Sofia 1 · draws 1 · Ludogorets 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-25 | Ludogorets | 1-0 | CSKA Sofia | Bulgaria First League |
| 2026-05-03 | CSKA Sofia | 1-0 | Ludogorets | Bulgaria First League |
| 2026-03-14 | Ludogorets | 3-0 | CSKA Sofia | Bulgaria First League |
| 2025-10-05 | CSKA Sofia | 0-0 | Ludogorets | Bulgaria First League |
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
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Before and after this match
- CSKA Sofia, previous: FC Nordsjaelland v CSKA Sofia analysis
- CSKA Sofia, next: Panathinaikos – CSKA Sofia, 2026-11-05
- Ludogorets, previous: Ludogorets vs Arda Kardzhali: odds and pick