Dunav Ruse vs Spartak Varna preview
In the match between Dunav Ruse and Spartak Varna, the 1X2 probabilities show Dunav Ruse at 38%, Spartak Varna at 33%, and a draw at 29%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with a 9% chance according to our model.
Both teams to score has a probability of 56%, while Over 2.5 goals stands at 50%. Dunav Ruse has expected goals of 1.38, while Spartak Varna has 1.29. Factors that could affect these predictions include changes in team form or player performance on match day. The recent form shows Dunav Ruse with a record of W-D-L-L-D-L, while Spartak Varna has W-L-D-D-D-L.
Dunav Ruse vs Spartak Varna: model vs market
| Source | Dunav Ruse | Draw | Spartak Varna |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 38% | 28% | 34% |
| Market | 38% | 30% | 33% |
| Published | 38% | 29% | 33% |
| Edge | 0% | -1% | +1% |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.45, recorded — the top price across the 6 books we record, each at its own last update.
Dunav Ruse vs Spartak Varna odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Dunav Ruse, 15 snapshots since 2026-10-12.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dunav Ruse | 2.40 | 2.44 | +0.04 |
| Draw | 3.23 | 3.10 | -0.12 |
| Spartak Varna | 2.81 | 2.82 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Dunav Ruse and Spartak Varna expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.68
- Attack rating (Dunav Ruse / Spartak Varna)
- 1.10 / 0.85
- Defence rating (Dunav Ruse / Spartak Varna)
- 1.41 / 0.96
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Dunav Ruse vs Spartak Varna score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Dunav Ruse goals. Columns: Spartak Varna goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Dunav Ruse vs Spartak Varna goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 56%
- No goals (0–0)
- 8%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Dunav Ruse vs Spartak Varna
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Dunav Ruse | 38% | 2.65 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.41 | |
| Spartak Varna | 33% | 3.04 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 50% | 2.00 |
| Under 2.5 | 50% | 2.00 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56% | 1.80 |
| No | 44% | 2.25 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Dunav Ruse or draw) | 67% | 1.49 |
| 12 (either side) | 71% | 1.42 | |
| X2 (draw or Spartak Varna) | 62% | 1.61 | |
| Handicap -1 | Dunav Ruse win by 2+ | 18% | 5.52 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Dunav Ruse and Spartak Varna recent form
Dunav Ruse
1W 2D 3L
Spartak Varna
1W 3D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Dunav Ruse at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-2-3
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.80
- Goals against / match
- 1.80
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 5
- They have won 1 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 10 matches.
- 48% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Spartak Varna away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-2
- Win rate
- 40%
- Goals for / match
- 1.20
- Goals against / match
- 1.80
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 5
- They have won 2 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 10 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Dunav Ruse at home only, Spartak Varna away only.
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
- Cherno More Varna vs Septemvri Sofia 2026-10-24
- CSKA Sofia v Ludogorets — match page 2026-10-24
- Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Slavia Sofia — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- Lokomotiv Sofia vs Botev Vratsa 2026-10-24
- CSKA 1948 v Botev Plovdiv — match page 2026-10-24
- Arda Kardzhali vs Levski Sofia — team news & stats 2026-10-24
Before and after this match
- Dunav Ruse, previous: Septemvri Sofia v Dunav Ruse analysis
- Spartak Varna, previous: Botev Vratsa vs Spartak Varna: odds and pick