CSKA 1948 vs Spartak Varna preview
CSKA 1948 has a 66% chance to win against Spartak Varna, with a most likely scoreline of 2-0 at 13%. The expected goals for CSKA 1948 is 1.96, while Spartak Varna's is just 0.72. This suggests a strong performance from CSKA 1948, but the recent form shows they have lost 2 out of their last 6 matches.
For Spartak Varna, they have not won in their last 3 meetings against CSKA 1948, with 2 draws and 1 loss. The model indicates a 50% chance for Over 2.5 goals and a 45% chance for both teams to score. If Spartak Varna can improve their scoring, they might challenge CSKA 1948 more than expected.
CSKA 1948 vs Spartak Varna: model vs market
| Source | CSKA 1948 | Draw | Spartak Varna |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 66% | 22% | 12% |
| Market | 66% | 21% | 14% |
| Published | 66% | 21% | 13% |
| Edge | 0% | 0% | 0% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.96 vs 0.72.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.43, recorded — the top price across the 5 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -6.1% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
CSKA 1948 vs Spartak Varna odds movement
Median bookmaker price on CSKA 1948, 6 snapshots since 2026-10-24.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| CSKA 1948 | 1.45 | 1.40 | -0.05 |
| Draw | 4.20 | 4.42 | +0.22 |
| Spartak Varna | 6.32 | 6.80 | +0.48 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
CSKA 1948 and Spartak Varna expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.68
- Attack rating (CSKA 1948 / Spartak Varna)
- 1.44 / 0.76
- Defence rating (CSKA 1948 / Spartak Varna)
- 0.89 / 1.03
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
CSKA 1948 vs Spartak Varna score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: CSKA 1948 goals. Columns: Spartak Varna goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
CSKA 1948 vs Spartak Varna goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 45%
- No goals (0–0)
- 8%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for CSKA 1948 vs Spartak Varna
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | CSKA 1948 | 66% | 1.52 |
| Draw | 21% | 4.71 | |
| Spartak Varna | 13% | 7.62 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 50% | 1.99 |
| Under 2.5 | 50% | 2.01 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 45% | 2.21 |
| No | 55% | 1.82 | |
| Double chance | 1X (CSKA 1948 or draw) | 87% | 1.15 |
| 12 (either side) | 79% | 1.27 | |
| X2 (draw or Spartak Varna) | 34% | 2.91 | |
| Handicap -1 | CSKA 1948 win by 2+ | 41% | 2.43 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
CSKA 1948 and Spartak Varna recent form
CSKA 1948
4W 0D 2L
Spartak Varna
1W 3D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
CSKA 1948 at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 6-0-1
- Win rate
- 86%
- Goals for / match
- 2.57
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 7
- They have won 7 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They average 2.3 goals per game at home against 1.4 on the road.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
Spartak Varna away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-3
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.83
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 6
- They have won 3 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 11 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: CSKA 1948 at home only, Spartak Varna away only.
CSKA 1948 vs Spartak Varna head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: CSKA 1948 1 · draws 2 · Spartak Varna 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-17 | Spartak Varna | 2-2 | CSKA 1948 | Bulgaria First League |
| 2026-03-14 | Spartak Varna | 1-2 | CSKA 1948 | Bulgaria First League |
| 2025-10-04 | CSKA 1948 | 1-1 | Spartak Varna | Bulgaria First League |
Other Matchday 14 fixtures
- Lokomotiv Sofia vs Botev Plovdiv — team news & stats 2026-10-30
- Lokomotiv Plovdiv v Ludogorets — match page 2026-10-31
- Dunav Ruse v Levski Sofia — match page 2026-10-31
- CSKA Sofia vs Slavia Sofia 2026-10-31
- Cherno More Varna vs Botev Vratsa — team news & stats 2026-11-02
Before and after this match
- CSKA 1948, previous: CSKA 1948 vs Botev Plovdiv: odds and pick
- CSKA 1948, next: Ludogorets – CSKA 1948, 2026-11-07
- Spartak Varna, previous: Dunav Ruse v Spartak Varna analysis
- Spartak Varna, next: Spartak Varna vs Arda Kardzhali: odds and pick