Lokomotiv Sofia vs Botev Vratsa preview
In the fixture between Lokomotiv Sofia and Botev Vratsa, the 1X2 probabilities show Lokomotiv Sofia at 49%, Botev Vratsa at 25%, and a draw at 27%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, with a 9% chance according to our model. With expected goals of 1.49 for Lokomotiv Sofia and 1.18 for Botev Vratsa, the match could lean towards a low-scoring affair.
However, there is a 50% chance of Over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance for both teams to score. This suggests that while Lokomotiv Sofia has a slight edge, Botev Vratsa's recent form, with 2 wins in their last 3 matches, could challenge the expected outcome. The confidence grade is C, indicating some uncertainty.
Lokomotiv Sofia vs Botev Vratsa: model vs market
| Source | Lokomotiv Sofia | Draw | Botev Vratsa |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 43% | 28% | 29% |
| Market | 51% | 26% | 23% |
| Published | 49% | 27% | 25% |
| Edge | -7% | +2% | +6% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.49 vs 1.18.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.95, recorded — the top price across the 6 books we record, each at its own last update.
Lokomotiv Sofia vs Botev Vratsa odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Lokomotiv Sofia, 15 snapshots since 2026-10-12.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lokomotiv Sofia | 1.95 | 1.83 | -0.12 |
| Draw | 3.35 | 3.54 | +0.19 |
| Botev Vratsa | 3.68 | 3.98 | +0.30 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Lokomotiv Sofia and Botev Vratsa expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.66
- Attack rating (Lokomotiv Sofia / Botev Vratsa)
- 0.94 / 0.86
- Defence rating (Lokomotiv Sofia / Botev Vratsa)
- 1.27 / 1.22
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Lokomotiv Sofia vs Botev Vratsa score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Lokomotiv Sofia goals. Columns: Botev Vratsa goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Lokomotiv Sofia vs Botev Vratsa goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 55%
- No goals (0–0)
- 8%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Lokomotiv Sofia vs Botev Vratsa
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Lokomotiv Sofia | 49% | 2.05 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.75 | |
| Botev Vratsa | 25% | 4.06 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 50% | 2.01 |
| Under 2.5 | 50% | 1.99 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55% | 1.83 |
| No | 45% | 2.21 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Lokomotiv Sofia or draw) | 75% | 1.33 |
| 12 (either side) | 73% | 1.36 | |
| X2 (draw or Botev Vratsa) | 51% | 1.95 | |
| Handicap -1 | Lokomotiv Sofia win by 2+ | 22% | 4.58 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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| 1 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Lokomotiv Sofia and Botev Vratsa recent form
Lokomotiv Sofia
1W 3D 2L
Botev Vratsa
2W 2D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Lokomotiv Sofia at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-1-4
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.80
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 5
- They have won 1 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.3 goals per game on the road against 0.8 at home.
Botev Vratsa away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-4
- Win rate
- 17%
- Goals for / match
- 1.17
- Goals against / match
- 2.50
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 6
- They have won 2 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They average 1.2 goals per game on the road against 0.5 at home.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 10 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Lokomotiv Sofia at home only, Botev Vratsa away only.
Lokomotiv Sofia vs Botev Vratsa head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Lokomotiv Sofia 0 · draws 1 · Botev Vratsa 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-05 | Lokomotiv Sofia | 2-2 | Botev Vratsa | Bulgaria First League |
| 2026-04-14 | Botev Vratsa | 3-2 | Lokomotiv Sofia | Bulgaria First League |
| 2025-11-08 | Lokomotiv Sofia | 0-1 | Botev Vratsa | Bulgaria First League |
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
- Dunav Ruse vs Spartak Varna — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- Cherno More Varna vs Septemvri Sofia 2026-10-24
- CSKA Sofia v Ludogorets — match page 2026-10-24
- Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Slavia Sofia — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- CSKA 1948 v Botev Plovdiv — match page 2026-10-24
- Arda Kardzhali vs Levski Sofia — team news & stats 2026-10-24
Before and after this match
- Lokomotiv Sofia, previous: Lokomotiv Sofia vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv prediction
- Botev Vratsa, previous: Botev Vratsa vs Spartak Varna: odds and pick