Septemvri Sofia vs Dunav Ruse: model vs market
| Source | Septemvri Sofia | Draw | Dunav Ruse |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 40% | 28% | 32% |
| Market | 40% | 31% | 29% |
| Published | 40% | 30% | 30% |
| Edge | 0% | -3% | +3% |
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.39, recorded — the top price across the 7 books we record, each at its own last update.
Septemvri Sofia vs Dunav Ruse odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Septemvri Sofia, 6 snapshots since 2026-10-04.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Septemvri Sofia | 2.20 | 2.32 | +0.12 |
| Draw | 3.10 | 3.04 | -0.06 |
| Dunav Ruse | 3.25 | 3.15 | -0.10 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Septemvri Sofia and Dunav Ruse expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.79
- Attack rating (Septemvri Sofia / Dunav Ruse)
- 0.82 / 0.94
- Defence rating (Septemvri Sofia / Dunav Ruse)
- 1.30 / 1.40
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Septemvri Sofia vs Dunav Ruse score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Septemvri Sofia goals. Columns: Dunav Ruse goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Septemvri Sofia vs Dunav Ruse goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 58%
- No goals (0–0)
- 7%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Septemvri Sofia vs Dunav Ruse
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Septemvri Sofia | 40% | 2.50 |
| Draw | 30% | 3.36 | |
| Dunav Ruse | 30% | 3.31 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 53% | 1.89 |
| Under 2.5 | 47% | 2.12 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 58% | 1.74 |
| No | 42% | 2.36 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Septemvri Sofia or draw) | 70% | 1.43 |
| 12 (either side) | 70% | 1.42 | |
| X2 (draw or Dunav Ruse) | 60% | 1.67 | |
| Handicap -1 | Septemvri Sofia win by 2+ | 20% | 5.00 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Septemvri Sofia and Dunav Ruse recent form
Septemvri Sofia
2W 1D 3L
Dunav Ruse
1W 2D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Septemvri Sofia at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-3
- Win rate
- 20%
- Goals for / match
- 0.80
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 5
- They have won 2 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
Dunav Ruse away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-4
- Win rate
- 20%
- Goals for / match
- 1.20
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 5
- They have won 1 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They average 1.2 goals per game on the road against 0.5 at home.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 9 matches.
- 50% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Septemvri Sofia at home only, Dunav Ruse away only.
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
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- Ludogorets v Arda Kardzhali — match page 2026-10-12