Updated

Bulgaria First League · Matchday 11

Septemvri Sofia vs Dunav Ruse

· Dragalevtsi Stadium,, Sofia· Referee Todor Kirov

Full time2 – 3

Alin prediction was Septemvri Sofia to win

Cblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 2 – 1

9% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Septemvri SofiaDrawDunav Ruse

Septemvri Sofia vs Dunav Ruse: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceSeptemvri SofiaDrawDunav Ruse
Model40%28%32%
Market42%30%28%
Published41%29%29%
Edge0%-1%+1%
  • Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Septemvri Sofia vs Dunav Ruse odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Septemvri Sofia, 15 snapshots since 2026-10-04.

Opened 2.20Now 2.20 +0.00
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Septemvri Sofia2.202.20+0.00
Draw3.103.08-0.02
Dunav Ruse3.253.29+0.04

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Septemvri Sofia and Dunav Ruse expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.48Septemvri Sofia
1.31Dunav Ruse
Total expected goals
2.79
Attack rating (Septemvri Sofia / Dunav Ruse)
0.82 / 0.95
Defence rating (Septemvri Sofia / Dunav Ruse)
1.30 / 1.40

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Septemvri Sofia vs Dunav Ruse score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 7.3% 6.8% 5.3% 2.3% 1.0% 1 7.9% 13.1% 7.8% 3.4% 1.5% 2 6.7% 8.8% 5.8% 2.5% 1.1% 3 3.3% 4.4% 2.9% 1.2% 0.5% 4+ 1.7% 2.2% 1.5% 0.6% 0.3%

Rows: Septemvri Sofia goals. Columns: Dunav Ruse goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Septemvri Sofia vs Dunav Ruse goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 93%
Over 1.5 78%
Over 2.5 53%
Over 3.5 31%
Both teams to score
58%
No goals (0–0)
7%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Septemvri Sofia vs Dunav Ruse

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Septemvri Sofia41%2.41
Draw29%3.40
Dunav Ruse29%3.43
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.553%1.89
Under 2.547%2.12
Both teams to scoreYes58%1.73
No42%2.36
Double chance1X (Septemvri Sofia or draw)71%1.41
12 (either side)71%1.42
X2 (draw or Dunav Ruse)59%1.71
Handicap -1Septemvri Sofia win by 2+20%5.00
Push (exactly one goal)20%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Septemvri Sofia and Dunav Ruse recent form

Septemvri Sofia 2W 1D 3L
Dunav Ruse 1W 2D 3L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Septemvri Sofia at home

Record (W-D-L)
1-1-3
Win rate
20%
Goals for / match
0.80
Goals against / match
2.00
Clean sheets
1 of 5
  • They have won 2 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 10 matches.

Dunav Ruse away

Record (W-D-L)
1-0-4
Win rate
20%
Goals for / match
1.20
Goals against / match
2.00
Clean sheets
0 of 5
  • They have won 1 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 10 matches.
  • 48% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Septemvri Sofia at home only, Dunav Ruse away only.

Expected lineups

Septemvri Sofia lineup

  1. 27 André Filipe Rio Liberal
  2. 8 B. Penchev
  3. 29 F. Herard
  4. 33 G. Ivanov
  5. 4 M. Hristov
  6. 15 P. Gospodinov
  7. 6 Pedro Ferreira
  8. 19 Pedro Igor
  9. 12 V. Ivanov
  10. 26 V. Ozornwafor
  11. 5 Y. Baurenski

Dunav Ruse lineup

  1. 39 Andre Alves
  2. 88 D. Todorov
  3. 33 G. Kitanov
  4. 51 I. Budinov
  5. 4 J. Cabarcas
  6. 23 Jordan Layn Saint-Louis
  7. 5 K. Antoniou
  8. 10 K. Boychev
  9. 14 R. Apostolov
  10. 9 Álex Valiño

Septemvri Sofia vs Dunav Ruse head-to-head

Last 6 meetings: Septemvri Sofia 1 · draws 3 · Dunav Ruse 2.

Septemvri SofiaDrawsDunav Ruse
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2024-04-22Septemvri Sofia1-2Dunav RuseSecond League
2023-10-02Dunav Ruse1-1Septemvri SofiaSecond League
2019-04-26Septemvri Sofia1-1Dunav RuseFirst League
2019-04-08Dunav Ruse2-2Septemvri SofiaFirst League
2018-12-09Septemvri Sofia2-1Dunav RuseFirst League
2018-08-24Dunav Ruse2-0Septemvri SofiaFirst League

Other Matchday 11 fixtures

Before and after this match