Ludogorets vs Arda Kardzhali: model vs market
| Source | Ludogorets | Draw | Arda Kardzhali |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 50% | 26% | 24% |
| Market | 57% | 25% | 17% |
| Published | 56% | 25% | 19% |
| Edge | -7% | +1% | +6% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.72 vs 1.13.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.65, recorded — the top price across the 7 books we record, each at its own last update.
Ludogorets vs Arda Kardzhali odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Ludogorets, 6 snapshots since 2026-10-04.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ludogorets | 1.55 | 1.60 | +0.05 |
| Draw | 3.80 | 3.64 | -0.16 |
| Arda Kardzhali | 5.64 | 5.32 | -0.32 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Ludogorets and Arda Kardzhali expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.85
- Attack rating (Ludogorets / Arda Kardzhali)
- 1.22 / 1.26
- Defence rating (Ludogorets / Arda Kardzhali)
- 0.84 / 1.08
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Ludogorets vs Arda Kardzhali score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Ludogorets goals. Columns: Arda Kardzhali goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Ludogorets vs Arda Kardzhali goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 57%
- No goals (0–0)
- 7%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Ludogorets vs Arda Kardzhali
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Ludogorets | 56% | 1.80 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.93 | |
| Arda Kardzhali | 19% | 5.29 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 54% | 1.85 |
| Under 2.5 | 46% | 2.18 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57% | 1.77 |
| No | 43% | 2.30 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Ludogorets or draw) | 81% | 1.23 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.34 | |
| X2 (draw or Arda Kardzhali) | 44% | 2.25 | |
| Handicap -1 | Ludogorets win by 2+ | 28% | 3.58 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Ludogorets and Arda Kardzhali recent form
Ludogorets
4W 2D 0L
Arda Kardzhali
3W 1D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Ludogorets at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-1-0
- Win rate
- 80%
- Goals for / match
- 1.60
- Goals against / match
- 0.60
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 5
- They have won 6 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game on the road against 1.5 at home.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 8 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- 53% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Arda Kardzhali away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-2
- Win rate
- 40%
- Goals for / match
- 1.20
- Goals against / match
- 1.40
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 5
- They have won 5 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- 42% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Ludogorets at home only, Arda Kardzhali away only.
Ludogorets vs Arda Kardzhali head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Ludogorets 0 · draws 0 · Arda Kardzhali 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-15 | Arda Kardzhali | 1-0 | Ludogorets | Bulgaria First League |
| 2025-11-09 | Ludogorets | 2-3 | Arda Kardzhali | Bulgaria First League |
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