Updated

Bulgaria First League · Matchday 11

Ludogorets vs Arda Kardzhali

· Huvepharma Arena, Razgrad· Referee Kristiyan Kolev

Full time5 – 0

Alin prediction was Ludogorets to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 2 – 1

10% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
LudogoretsDrawArda Kardzhali

Ludogorets vs Arda Kardzhali: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceLudogoretsDrawArda Kardzhali
Model50%26%24%
Market63%23%14%
Published60%24%17%
Edge-3%+1%+3%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.71 vs 1.13.
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Ludogorets vs Arda Kardzhali odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Ludogorets, 18 snapshots since 2026-10-04.

Opened 1.55Now 1.47 -0.08
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Ludogorets1.551.47-0.08
Draw3.804.00+0.20
Arda Kardzhali5.646.60+0.96

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Ludogorets and Arda Kardzhali expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.71Ludogorets
1.13Arda Kardzhali
Total expected goals
2.84
Attack rating (Ludogorets / Arda Kardzhali)
1.22 / 1.26
Defence rating (Ludogorets / Arda Kardzhali)
0.84 / 1.08

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Ludogorets vs Arda Kardzhali score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 7.0% 5.5% 3.7% 1.4% 0.5% 1 8.8% 12.4% 6.4% 2.4% 0.9% 2 8.5% 9.6% 5.5% 2.1% 0.7% 3 4.9% 5.5% 3.1% 1.2% 0.4% 4+ 3.0% 3.4% 2.0% 0.7% 0.3%

Rows: Ludogorets goals. Columns: Arda Kardzhali goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Ludogorets vs Arda Kardzhali goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 93%
Over 1.5 79%
Over 2.5 54%
Over 3.5 32%
Both teams to score
57%
No goals (0–0)
7%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Ludogorets vs Arda Kardzhali

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Ludogorets60%1.68
Draw24%4.19
Arda Kardzhali17%6.05
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.554%1.85
Under 2.546%2.18
Both teams to scoreYes57%1.77
No43%2.31
Double chance1X (Ludogorets or draw)83%1.20
12 (either side)76%1.31
X2 (draw or Arda Kardzhali)40%2.47
Handicap -1Ludogorets win by 2+28%3.63
Push (exactly one goal)22%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Ludogorets and Arda Kardzhali recent form

Ludogorets 4W 2D 0L
Arda Kardzhali 3W 1D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Ludogorets at home

Record (W-D-L)
4-1-0
Win rate
80%
Goals for / match
1.60
Goals against / match
0.60
Clean sheets
2 of 5
  • They have won 7 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 9 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
  • 50% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Arda Kardzhali away

Record (W-D-L)
2-1-2
Win rate
40%
Goals for / match
1.20
Goals against / match
1.40
Clean sheets
2 of 5
  • They have won 5 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
  • They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
  • They have kept 4 clean sheets in 10 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
  • 43% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Ludogorets at home only, Arda Kardzhali away only.

Expected lineups

Ludogorets lineup

  1. 37 B. Tekpetey
  2. 11 Caio Vidal
  3. 23 Deroy Duarte
  4. 15 E. Kurtulus
  5. 39 H. Bonmann
  6. 4 Hossam Abdelmaguid
  7. 6 I. Zhelizko
  8. 2 J. Andersson
  9. 14 P. Stanić
  10. 12 Rwan Cruz
  11. 42 S. Shishkov

Bench: A. Nedyalkov, G. Terziev, A. Hadžiahmetović, I. Grbić, Nathan Fernandes, I. Chochev, A. Camara, M. Polendakov, F. Kaloč, O. Rekik, Erick Marcus

Arda Kardzhali lineup

  1. 1 A. Gospodinov
  2. 39 A. Vutov
  3. 35 D. Velkovski
  4. 9 G. Nikolov
  5. 80 L. Kotev
  6. 24 M. Paskalev
  7. 91 S. Ivanov
  8. 10 S. Kovachev
  9. 5 V. Lyubenov
  10. 6 V. Popov
  11. 21 V. Velev

Bench: A. Kabov, P. Bachev, S. Vasilev, Y. Georgiev, B. Akandzha, Adama Ardile Traoré, B. Karagaren

Ludogorets vs Arda Kardzhali head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Ludogorets 4 · draws 4 · Arda Kardzhali 2.

LudogoretsDrawsArda Kardzhali
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-04-15Arda Kardzhali1-0LudogoretsBulgaria First League
2025-11-09Ludogorets2-3Arda KardzhaliBulgaria First League
2025-05-26Ludogorets2-2Arda KardzhaliFirst League
2025-05-09Arda Kardzhali1-1LudogoretsFirst League
2024-12-04Arda Kardzhali0-4LudogoretsFirst League
2024-08-03Ludogorets5-1Arda KardzhaliFirst League
2024-04-15Ludogorets2-0Arda KardzhaliFirst League
2023-10-22Arda Kardzhali0-0LudogoretsFirst League
2023-04-14Arda Kardzhali1-2LudogoretsFirst League
2022-09-18Ludogorets1-1Arda KardzhaliFirst League

Other Matchday 11 fixtures

Before and after this match