NEC Nijmegen vs Levski Sofia preview
In the UEFA Europa League match between NEC Nijmegen and Levski Sofia, the 1X2 probabilities show NEC Nijmegen at 42%, Levski Sofia at 32%, and a draw at 25%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, with a 5% chance. Both teams to score stands at 50%, while Over 2.5 goals is at 49%.
NEC Nijmegen's expected goals are 0.89, compared to Levski Sofia's 1.76, indicating a potential advantage for the visitors in creating chances. Recent form shows NEC Nijmegen with 1 win in their last 5 matches, while Levski Sofia has won 3 of their last 5. This disparity in form could influence the match outcome, despite the close probabilities.
NEC Nijmegen vs Levski Sofia: model vs market
| Source | NEC Nijmegen | Draw | Levski Sofia |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 18% | 26% | 57% |
| Market | 51% | 25% | 24% |
| Published | 42% | 25% | 32% |
| Edge | -33% | +1% | +32% |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.92, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update.
NEC Nijmegen vs Levski Sofia odds movement
Median bookmaker price on NEC Nijmegen, 3 snapshots since 2026-10-09.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| NEC Nijmegen | 1.86 | 1.86 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 3.75 | 3.75 | +0.00 |
| Levski Sofia | 3.85 | 3.85 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
NEC Nijmegen and Levski Sofia expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.65
- Attack rating (NEC Nijmegen / Levski Sofia)
- 0.90 / 1.04
- Defence rating (NEC Nijmegen / Levski Sofia)
- 1.48 / 0.64
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
NEC Nijmegen vs Levski Sofia score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: NEC Nijmegen goals. Columns: Levski Sofia goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
NEC Nijmegen vs Levski Sofia goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 50%
- No goals (0–0)
- 8%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for NEC Nijmegen vs Levski Sofia
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | NEC Nijmegen | 42% | 2.36 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.97 | |
| Levski Sofia | 32% | 3.08 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 49% | 2.03 |
| Under 2.5 | 51% | 1.97 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 50% | 2.00 |
| No | 50% | 2.00 | |
| Double chance | 1X (NEC Nijmegen or draw) | 68% | 1.48 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.34 | |
| X2 (draw or Levski Sofia) | 58% | 1.73 | |
| Handicap -1 | NEC Nijmegen win by 2+ | 6% | 16.30 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 12% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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NEC Nijmegen and Levski Sofia recent form
NEC Nijmegen
1W 2D 3L
Levski Sofia
3W 1D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
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Before and after this match
- NEC Nijmegen, previous: Ajax vs NEC Nijmegen prediction
- Levski Sofia, previous: Cherno More Varna – Levski Sofia, 2026-10-11