Hoffenheim vs Beşiktaş preview
In the UEFA Europa League fixture between Hoffenheim and Beşiktaş, the 1X2 probabilities show Hoffenheim at 44%, Beşiktaş at 32%, and a draw at 24%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with a 7% chance. Both teams to score and Over 2.5 goals both stand at 71%, indicating a strong likelihood of an open game.
Hoffenheim's expected goals are 1.66, while Beşiktaş has a higher expected goals figure of 2.04. Recent form shows Hoffenheim with L-L-W-L-L-W and Beşiktaş with L-W-W-W-W-L. If Hoffenheim can improve their form, it could challenge the expected outcome.
Hoffenheim vs Beşiktaş: model vs market
| Source | Hoffenheim | Draw | Beşiktaş |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 31% | 23% | 46% |
| Market | 49% | 24% | 28% |
| Published | 44% | 24% | 32% |
| Edge | -18% | -1% | +19% |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.03, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update.
Hoffenheim vs Beşiktaş odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Hoffenheim, 3 snapshots since 2026-10-09.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hoffenheim | 1.92 | 1.92 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 3.95 | 3.95 | +0.00 |
| Beşiktaş | 3.40 | 3.40 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Hoffenheim and Beşiktaş expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.70
- Attack rating (Hoffenheim / Beşiktaş)
- 1.32 / 1.49
- Defence rating (Hoffenheim / Beşiktaş)
- 1.20 / 0.81
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Hoffenheim vs Beşiktaş score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Hoffenheim goals. Columns: Beşiktaş goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Hoffenheim vs Beşiktaş goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 71%
- No goals (0–0)
- 3%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Hoffenheim vs Beşiktaş
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Hoffenheim | 44% | 2.26 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.25 | |
| Beşiktaş | 32% | 3.11 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 71% | 1.40 |
| Under 2.5 | 29% | 3.50 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 71% | 1.40 |
| No | 29% | 3.48 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Hoffenheim or draw) | 68% | 1.48 |
| 12 (either side) | 76% | 1.31 | |
| X2 (draw or Beşiktaş) | 56% | 1.79 | |
| Handicap -1 | Hoffenheim win by 2+ | 16% | 6.45 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 15% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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Hoffenheim and Beşiktaş recent form
Hoffenheim
2W 0D 4L
Beşiktaş
4W 0D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Beşiktaş away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-0-1
- Win rate
- 67%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.33
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 3
- They have won 5 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 6 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- 60% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Hoffenheim at home only, Beşiktaş away only.
Other League Stage - 2 fixtures
- Bournemouth v Sturm Graz — match page 2026-10-15
- Marseille vs Olympiakos Piraeus — team news & stats 2026-10-15
- Rennes v OFI — match page 2026-10-15
- Benfica v Celtic — match page 2026-10-15
- Jagiellonia vs Ararat-Armenia 2026-10-15
- NEC Nijmegen v Levski Sofia — match page 2026-10-15
- Celta Vigo v Juventus — match page 2026-10-15
- Dinamo Zagreb vs Anderlecht 2026-10-15
Before and after this match
- Hoffenheim, previous: Hoffenheim vs Hamburger SV prediction
- Beşiktaş, previous: Beşiktaş vs Kocaelispor prediction