Beşiktaş vs Kocaelispor: model vs market
| Source | Beşiktaş | Draw | Kocaelispor |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 59% | 26% | 15% |
| Market | 74% | 17% | 9% |
| Published | 70% | 19% | 10% |
| Edge | -16% | +10% | +6% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.65 vs 0.72.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.28, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update.
Beşiktaş vs Kocaelispor odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Beşiktaş, 4 snapshots since 2026-10-05.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Beşiktaş | 1.24 | 1.24 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 5.50 | 5.50 | +0.00 |
| Kocaelispor | 10.50 | 10.50 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Beşiktaş and Kocaelispor expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.36
- Attack rating (Beşiktaş / Kocaelispor)
- 1.49 / 0.73
- Defence rating (Beşiktaş / Kocaelispor)
- 0.81 / 0.74
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Beşiktaş vs Kocaelispor score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Beşiktaş goals. Columns: Kocaelispor goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Beşiktaş vs Kocaelispor goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 42%
- No goals (0–0)
- 11%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Beşiktaş vs Kocaelispor
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Beşiktaş | 70% | 1.42 |
| Draw | 19% | 5.21 | |
| Kocaelispor | 10% | 9.70 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 42% | 2.38 |
| Under 2.5 | 58% | 1.73 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 42% | 2.36 |
| No | 58% | 1.74 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Beşiktaş or draw) | 90% | 1.12 |
| 12 (either side) | 81% | 1.24 | |
| X2 (draw or Kocaelispor) | 30% | 3.39 | |
| Handicap -1 | Beşiktaş win by 2+ | 33% | 3.02 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 26% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Beşiktaş and Kocaelispor recent form
Beşiktaş
4W 0D 2L
Kocaelispor
4W 0D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Beşiktaş at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 3.33
- Goals against / match
- 0.67
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 3
- They have won 4 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 2.4 goals per match.
Kocaelispor away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-2
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 0.67
- Goals against / match
- 1.33
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 3
- They have won 3 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Beşiktaş at home only, Kocaelispor away only.
Beşiktaş vs Kocaelispor head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Beşiktaş 2 · draws 0 · Kocaelispor 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-28 | Kocaelispor | 0-1 | Beşiktaş | Süper Lig |
| 2025-09-29 | Beşiktaş | 3-1 | Kocaelispor | Süper Lig |
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