Updated

Süper Lig · Matchday 7

Beşiktaş vs Kocaelispor

· Tupras Stadium, Istanbul· Referee A. B. Taskinsoy

Full time2 – 1

Alin prediction was Beşiktaş to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 1 – 0

14% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
BeşiktaşDrawKocaelispor

Beşiktaş vs Kocaelispor: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceBeşiktaşDrawKocaelispor
Model58%27%15%
Market76%16%8%
Published72%18%10%
Edge-4%+3%+2%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.64 vs 0.72.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Beşiktaş vs Kocaelispor odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Beşiktaş, 13 snapshots since 2026-10-05.

Opened 1.24Now 1.23 -0.01
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Beşiktaş1.241.23-0.01
Draw5.505.95+0.45
Kocaelispor10.5011.25+0.75

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Beşiktaş and Kocaelispor expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.64Beşiktaş
0.72Kocaelispor
Total expected goals
2.36
Attack rating (Beşiktaş / Kocaelispor)
1.49 / 0.73
Defence rating (Beşiktaş / Kocaelispor)
0.81 / 0.74

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Beşiktaş vs Kocaelispor score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 10.6% 5.7% 2.5% 0.6% 0.1% 1 14.3% 12.3% 4.0% 1.0% 0.2% 2 12.6% 9.1% 3.3% 0.8% 0.2% 3 6.9% 5.0% 1.8% 0.4% 0.1% 4+ 4.1% 2.9% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1%

Rows: Beşiktaş goals. Columns: Kocaelispor goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Beşiktaş vs Kocaelispor goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 89%
Over 1.5 69%
Over 2.5 42%
Over 3.5 21%
Both teams to score
42%
No goals (0–0)
11%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Beşiktaş vs Kocaelispor

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Beşiktaş72%1.40
Draw18%5.42
Kocaelispor10%9.98
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.542%2.38
Under 2.558%1.72
Both teams to scoreYes42%2.35
No58%1.74
Double chance1X (Beşiktaş or draw)90%1.11
12 (either side)82%1.23
X2 (draw or Kocaelispor)28%3.51
Handicap -1Beşiktaş win by 2+33%3.06
Push (exactly one goal)25%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Beşiktaş and Kocaelispor recent form

Beşiktaş 4W 0D 2L
Kocaelispor 4W 0D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Beşiktaş at home

Record (W-D-L)
3-0-0
Win rate
100%
Goals for / match
3.33
Goals against / match
0.67
Clean sheets
2 of 3
  • They have won 4 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 2.3 goals per match.
  • They average 3.3 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.

Kocaelispor away

Record (W-D-L)
1-0-2
Win rate
33%
Goals for / match
0.67
Goals against / match
1.33
Clean sheets
0 of 3
  • They have won 4 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
  • They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 6 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.

League matches this season before kick-off: Beşiktaş at home only, Kocaelispor away only.

Injuries & availability

Beşiktaş absences

  • M. Rashica injury
  • O. Kokcu toe injury

Kocaelispor absences

  • A. Dijksteel muscle injury
  • A. Jovanovic knee injury
  • B. Petkovic hamstring injury
  • M. Baku inactive
  • M. Haidara muscle injury
  • M. Maglica injury
  • R. Rivas thigh injury
  • T. Gulliksen hamstring injury
  • T. Zoukrou muscle injury

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Expected lineups

Beşiktaş lineup · 4-1-4-1

  1. 1 Alexander Nübel
  2. 33 Rıdvan Yılmaz
  3. 53 Emirhan Topçu
  4. 35 Tiago Djaló
  5. 62 Amir Murillo
  6. 6 Salih Özcan
  7. 19 Leandro Trossard
  8. 10 Orkun Kökçü
  9. 21 Fabio Miretti
  10. 18 Václav Černý
  11. 28 Dušan Vlahović

Bench: Wilfred Ndidi, Kartal Kayra Yılmaz, Hyeon-gyu Oh, Kassoum Ouattara, Emmanuel Agbadou, Junior Olaitan, Ernest Poku, Taylan Bulut, İlhan Fakılı, Doğan Alemdar

Kocaelispor lineup · 4-3-3

  1. 83 Serhat Öztaşdelen
  2. 75 Tayfur Bingöl
  3. 5 Emir Ortakaya
  4. 41 Onur Öztonga
  5. 22 Uğur Kaan Yıldız
  6. 20 Mahamadou Susoho
  7. 10 Berkan Kutlu
  8. 14 Show
  9. 7 Dan Agyei
  10. 26 Metehan Altunbaş
  11. 11 Gonçalo Sousa

Bench: Muharrem Cinan, Tobias Fjeld Gulliksen, Deniz Ceylan, Hulisi Destici, Onurcan Piri, Ege Bilim, Makana Baku, Bedirhan Yıldız, Florian Ayé, Rigoberto Rivas

Beşiktaş vs Kocaelispor head-to-head

Last 3 meetings: Beşiktaş 2 · draws 1 · Kocaelispor 0.

BeşiktaşDrawsKocaelispor
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-02-28Kocaelispor0-1BeşiktaşSüper Lig
2026-02-05Kocaelispor1-1BeşiktaşTürkiye Kupası
2025-09-29Beşiktaş3-1KocaelisporSüper Lig

Other Matchday 7 fixtures

Before and after this match