Gençlerbirliği S.K. vs Amed preview
In the Süper Lig fixture between Gençlerbirliği S.K. and Amed, the key number is Amed's 45% chance to win in the 1X2 market. Gençlerbirliği S.K. has struggled recently, with three losses in their last five matches, while Amed has shown stronger form, winning four of their last five games.
The match is expected to see Over 2.5 goals at 71%, indicating a high-scoring game. However, the prediction could be affected if Gençlerbirliği S.K. manages to improve their attacking output, as their expected goals stand at only 1.08 compared to Amed's 2.61. Both teams to score has a probability of 62%, which suggests that Gençlerbirliği S.K. could find the net, but Amed remains the stronger side.
Gençlerbirliği S.K. vs Amed: model vs market
| Source | Gençlerbirliği S.K. | Draw | Amed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 13% | 18% | 70% |
| Market | 37% | 27% | 37% |
| Published | 31% | 24% | 45% |
| Edge | -24% | -9% | +33% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.61 vs 1.08.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- The market prices Amed below the model: +32.8 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.67, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update.
Gençlerbirliği S.K. vs Amed odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Amed, 6 snapshots since 2026-10-04.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gençlerbirliği S.K. | 2.62 | 2.51 | -0.11 |
| Draw | 3.45 | 3.45 | +0.00 |
| Amed | 2.40 | 2.50 | +0.10 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Gençlerbirliği S.K. and Amed expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.69
- Attack rating (Gençlerbirliği S.K. / Amed)
- 0.76 / 1.63
- Defence rating (Gençlerbirliği S.K. / Amed)
- 1.33 / 0.95
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Gençlerbirliği S.K. vs Amed score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Gençlerbirliği S.K. goals. Columns: Amed goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Gençlerbirliği S.K. vs Amed goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 62%
- No goals (0–0)
- 3%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Gençlerbirliği S.K. vs Amed
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Gençlerbirliği S.K. | 31% | 3.26 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.10 | |
| Amed | 45% | 2.22 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 71% | 1.40 |
| Under 2.5 | 29% | 3.48 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 62% | 1.62 |
| No | 38% | 2.61 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Gençlerbirliği S.K. or draw) | 55% | 1.82 |
| 12 (either side) | 76% | 1.32 | |
| X2 (draw or Amed) | 69% | 1.44 | |
| Handicap -1 | Amed win by 2+ | 49% | 2.04 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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| 4 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Gençlerbirliği S.K. and Amed recent form
Gençlerbirliği S.K.
2W 1D 3L
Amed
4W 1D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Gençlerbirliği S.K. at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-1
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.33
- Goals against / match
- 1.33
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 3
- They have won 2 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
Amed away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-1-1
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 2
- They have won 3 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 2.4 goals per match.
- 73% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Gençlerbirliği S.K. at home only, Amed away only.
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