Updated

Süper Lig · Matchday 7

Gençlerbirliği S.K. vs Amed

· Eryaman Stadium, Ankara· Referee U. Ozturk

Full time2 – 2

Alin prediction was Amed to win

Cblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 1 – 2

9% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Gençlerbirliği S.K.DrawAmed

Gençlerbirliği S.K. vs Amed: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceGençlerbirliği S.K.DrawAmed
Model13%18%69%
Market29%27%43%
Published25%25%50%
Edge-4%-2%+7%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.60 vs 1.08.
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Amed below our published probability: +6.5 percentage points of edge.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Gençlerbirliği S.K. vs Amed odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Amed, 13 snapshots since 2026-10-04.

Opened 2.40Now 2.13 -0.27
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Gençlerbirliği S.K.2.623.16+0.54
Draw3.453.38-0.08
Amed2.402.13-0.27

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Gençlerbirliği S.K. and Amed expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.08Gençlerbirliği S.K.
2.60Amed
Total expected goals
3.68
Attack rating (Gençlerbirliği S.K. / Amed)
0.75 / 1.62
Defence rating (Gençlerbirliği S.K. / Amed)
1.33 / 0.95

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Gençlerbirliği S.K. vs Amed score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 3.2% 5.9% 8.5% 7.4% 9.0% 1 2.0% 7.8% 9.2% 8.0% 9.7% 2 1.5% 3.8% 5.0% 4.3% 5.2% 3 0.5% 1.4% 1.8% 1.5% 1.9% 4+ 0.2% 0.5% 0.6% 0.5% 0.6%

Rows: Gençlerbirliği S.K. goals. Columns: Amed goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Gençlerbirliği S.K. vs Amed goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 97%
Over 1.5 89%
Over 2.5 71%
Over 3.5 50%
Both teams to score
62%
No goals (0–0)
3%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Gençlerbirliği S.K. vs Amed

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Gençlerbirliği S.K.25%3.98
Draw25%4.00
Amed50%2.01
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.571%1.41
Under 2.529%3.46
Both teams to scoreYes62%1.62
No38%2.61
Double chance1X (Gençlerbirliği S.K. or draw)50%1.99
12 (either side)75%1.33
X2 (draw or Amed)75%1.34
Handicap -1Amed win by 2+49%2.05
Push (exactly one goal)21%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Gençlerbirliği S.K. and Amed recent form

Gençlerbirliği S.K. 2W 1D 3L
Amed 4W 1D 1L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Gençlerbirliği S.K. at home

Record (W-D-L)
1-1-1
Win rate
33%
Goals for / match
1.33
Goals against / match
1.33
Clean sheets
0 of 3
  • They have won 2 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
  • They average 1.3 goals per game at home against 0.3 on the road.
  • 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Amed away

Record (W-D-L)
0-1-1
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
1.00
Goals against / match
2.00
Clean sheets
0 of 2
  • They have won 4 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 2.5 goals per match.
  • 65% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Gençlerbirliği S.K. at home only, Amed away only.

Injuries & availability

Gençlerbirliği S.K. absences

  • A. Traore muscle injury
  • C. Niasse muscle injury
  • K. Rodrigues muscle injury
  • O. Ulgun injury
  • P. Pereira inactive

Amed absences

  • A. Cisse suspended
  • G. Gul calf injury
  • M. Yildirim muscle injury
  • Y. Sor muscle injury

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Expected lineups

Gençlerbirliği S.K. lineup · 4-1-4-1

  1. 70 İrfan Can Eğribayat
  2. 2 Thalisson
  3. 90 Metehan Baltacı
  4. 6 Dimitris Goutas
  5. 88 Fıratcan Üzüm
  6. 42 Ousmane Diabate
  7. 7 Tiago Gouveia
  8. 10 Franco Tongya
  9. 83 Rafael Luis
  10. 77 Abdurrahim Dursun
  11. 9 Pedro Mendes

Bench: Yiğit Hamza Aydar, Victor Orakpo, Arda Cagan Celik, Erk Arda Aslan, Gökhan Akkan, Prince Martor, Salih Uçan, Göktug Erdem, Ensar Çavuşoğlu

Amed lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 40 Alban Lafont
  2. 17 Umut Meraş
  3. 4 David Robert Bates
  4. 5 Lumbardh Dellova
  5. 7 Ermal Krasniqi
  6. 8 Furkan Soyalp
  7. 22 Rayan Raveloson
  8. 74 Mohamed Khalil
  9. 91 Dia Saba
  10. 10 Samuel Ballet
  11. 99 Gift Orban

Bench: Miraç Acer, Cem Üstündag, Mehmet Yeşil, Burak Bozan, Mbaye Diagne, Kahraman Demirtaş, Ali Turap Bülbül, Rayan Lutin, Berk Kızıldemir

Gençlerbirliği S.K. vs Amed head-to-head

Last 4 meetings: Gençlerbirliği S.K. 2 · draws 2 · Amed 0.

Gençlerbirliği S.K.DrawsAmed
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2025-03-04Amed1-1Gençlerbirliği S.K.1. Lig
2024-10-19Gençlerbirliği S.K.1-1Amed1. Lig
2017-01-08Amed0-5Gençlerbirliği S.K.Türkiye Kupası
2016-12-29Gençlerbirliği S.K.6-0AmedTürkiye Kupası

Other Matchday 7 fixtures

Before and after this match