Updated

Süper Lig · Matchday 7

Galatasaray vs Kasımpaşa

· Rams Park, Istanbul· Referee H. U. Meler

Full time3 – 1

Alin prediction was Galatasaray to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 2 – 1

9% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
GalatasarayDrawKasımpaşa

Galatasaray vs Kasımpaşa: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceGalatasarayDrawKasımpaşa
Model41%26%32%
Market74%16%10%
Published66%18%16%
Edge-8%+3%+6%
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Galatasaray vs Kasımpaşa odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Galatasaray, 14 snapshots since 2026-10-03.

Opened 1.22Now 1.27 +0.05
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Galatasaray1.221.27+0.05
Draw6.006.00+0.00
Kasımpaşa10.649.50-1.14

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Galatasaray and Kasımpaşa expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.61Galatasaray
1.41Kasımpaşa
Total expected goals
3.01
Attack rating (Galatasaray / Kasımpaşa)
1.25 / 0.92
Defence rating (Galatasaray / Kasımpaşa)
1.26 / 0.86

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Galatasaray vs Kasımpaşa score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 6.0% 5.8% 4.8% 2.3% 1.1% 1 6.8% 12.2% 7.8% 3.7% 1.7% 2 6.4% 8.9% 6.3% 2.9% 1.4% 3 3.4% 4.8% 3.4% 1.6% 0.8% 4+ 2.0% 2.8% 1.9% 0.9% 0.4%

Rows: Galatasaray goals. Columns: Kasımpaşa goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Galatasaray vs Kasımpaşa goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 94%
Over 1.5 81%
Over 2.5 58%
Over 3.5 36%
Both teams to score
61%
No goals (0–0)
6%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Galatasaray vs Kasımpaşa

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Galatasaray66%1.51
Draw18%5.45
Kasımpaşa16%6.44
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.558%1.72
Under 2.542%2.38
Both teams to scoreYes61%1.63
No39%2.60
Double chance1X (Galatasaray or draw)84%1.18
12 (either side)82%1.22
X2 (draw or Kasımpaşa)34%2.95
Handicap -1Galatasaray win by 2+22%4.64
Push (exactly one goal)20%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Galatasaray and Kasımpaşa recent form

Galatasaray 4W 0D 2L
Kasımpaşa 2W 4D 0L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Galatasaray at home

Record (W-D-L)
2-1-0
Win rate
67%
Goals for / match
2.00
Goals against / match
1.33
Clean sheets
1 of 3
  • They have won 4 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 2.2 goals per match.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
  • 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Kasımpaşa away

Record (W-D-L)
2-1-0
Win rate
67%
Goals for / match
1.33
Goals against / match
0.67
Clean sheets
1 of 3
  • They have won 2 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
  • 59% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Galatasaray at home only, Kasımpaşa away only.

Injuries & availability

Galatasaray absences

  • G. Guvenc muscle injury
  • L. Ugochukwu suspended
  • M. Lemina muscle injury
  • R. Sallai inactive
  • V. Osimhen groin injury
  • W. Singo thigh injury

Kasımpaşa absences

  • A. Baldursson inactive
  • A. Benedyczak inactive
  • K. Corekci achilles tendon injury
  • M. Ouanes muscle injury

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Expected lineups

Galatasaray lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 1 Uğurcan Çakır
  2. 4 Ismail Jakobs
  3. 42 Abdülkerim Bardakcı
  4. 6 Davinson Sánchez
  5. 21 Deniz Gül
  6. 83 Aleksey Batrakov
  7. 34 Lucas Torreira
  8. 27 Rafael Leão
  9. 8 Gabriel Sara
  10. 53 Barış Alper Yılmaz
  11. 11 Yunus Akgün

Bench: El Chadaille Bitshiabu, Roland Sallai, Leroy Sané, Eren Elmalı, İlkay Gündoğan, Kaan Ayhan, Jankat Yılmaz, Victor Osimhen, Renato Nhaga, Mario Lemina

Kasımpaşa lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 1 Andreas Gianniotis
  2. 45 Ayberk Karapo
  3. 27 Matei Ilie
  4. 14 Kevin Mouanga
  5. 2 Cláudio Winck
  6. 26 Kerem Demirbay
  7. 51 Elson Mendes
  8. 7 Ali Yavuz Kol
  9. 16 Andri Fannar Baldursson
  10. 50 Güven Yalçın
  11. 9 Adrian Benedyczak

Bench: Adem Arous, Jakob Jessen, Atakan Mujde, Haris Hajradinović, Thiemoko Diarra, Jesurun Rak-Sakyi, Marcus Rafferty, Ali Emre Yanar, Emirhan Boz, Muhammed Bektaş

Galatasaray vs Kasımpaşa head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Galatasaray 6 · draws 2 · Kasımpaşa 2.

GalatasarayDrawsKasımpaşa
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-05-17Kasımpaşa1-0GalatasaraySüper Lig
2025-12-21Galatasaray3-0KasımpaşaSüper Lig
2025-03-02Kasımpaşa3-3GalatasaraySüper Lig
2024-09-28Galatasaray3-3KasımpaşaSüper Lig
2024-03-17Kasımpaşa3-4GalatasaraySüper Lig
2023-11-03Galatasaray2-1KasımpaşaSüper Lig
2023-03-11Galatasaray1-0KasımpaşaSüper Lig
2022-09-11Kasımpaşa2-3GalatasaraySüper Lig
2022-07-24Galatasaray2-1KasımpaşaFriendlies Clubs
2022-01-20Galatasaray1-3KasımpaşaSüper Lig

Other Matchday 7 fixtures

Before and after this match