Galatasaray vs Kasımpaşa preview
Galatasaray hosts Kasımpaşa with a 67% probability of winning according to the model 1X2. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, which occurs at a rate of 9%. Galatasaray's recent form shows three wins in their last five matches, while Kasımpaşa has drawn in three of their last five, indicating they can be tough to beat.
While the model suggests Over 2.5 goals at 58% and both teams to score at 61%, the confidence grade is C. This means there is some uncertainty, and unexpected results could occur, such as a low-scoring game or a draw, which might affect the expected outcomes.
Galatasaray vs Kasımpaşa: model vs market
| Source | Galatasaray | Draw | Kasımpaşa |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 41% | 26% | 32% |
| Market | 75% | 15% | 9% |
| Published | 67% | 18% | 15% |
| Edge | -34% | +11% | +23% |
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.26, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update.
Galatasaray vs Kasımpaşa odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Galatasaray, 8 snapshots since 2026-10-03.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Galatasaray | 1.22 | 1.23 | +0.01 |
| Draw | 6.00 | 6.00 | +0.00 |
| Kasımpaşa | 10.64 | 10.00 | -0.64 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Galatasaray and Kasımpaşa expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.01
- Attack rating (Galatasaray / Kasımpaşa)
- 1.25 / 0.92
- Defence rating (Galatasaray / Kasımpaşa)
- 1.26 / 0.86
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Galatasaray vs Kasımpaşa score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Galatasaray goals. Columns: Kasımpaşa goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Galatasaray vs Kasımpaşa goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 61%
- No goals (0–0)
- 6%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Galatasaray vs Kasımpaşa
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Galatasaray | 67% | 1.50 |
| Draw | 18% | 5.51 | |
| Kasımpaşa | 15% | 6.65 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 58% | 1.72 |
| Under 2.5 | 42% | 2.38 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61% | 1.63 |
| No | 39% | 2.60 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Galatasaray or draw) | 85% | 1.18 |
| 12 (either side) | 82% | 1.22 | |
| X2 (draw or Kasımpaşa) | 33% | 3.01 | |
| Handicap -1 | Galatasaray win by 2+ | 22% | 4.64 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Galatasaray and Kasımpaşa recent form
Galatasaray
4W 0D 2L
Kasımpaşa
2W 4D 0L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Galatasaray at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-0
- Win rate
- 67%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.33
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 3
- They have won 4 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 2.2 goals per match.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Kasımpaşa away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-0
- Win rate
- 67%
- Goals for / match
- 1.33
- Goals against / match
- 0.67
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 3
- They have won 2 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- 59% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Galatasaray at home only, Kasımpaşa away only.
Galatasaray vs Kasımpaşa head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Galatasaray 6 · draws 2 · Kasımpaşa 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-17 | Kasımpaşa | 1-0 | Galatasaray | Süper Lig |
| 2025-12-21 | Galatasaray | 3-0 | Kasımpaşa | Süper Lig |
| 2025-03-02 | Kasımpaşa | 3-3 | Galatasaray | Süper Lig |
| 2024-09-28 | Galatasaray | 3-3 | Kasımpaşa | Süper Lig |
| 2024-03-17 | Kasımpaşa | 3-4 | Galatasaray | Süper Lig |
| 2023-11-03 | Galatasaray | 2-1 | Kasımpaşa | Süper Lig |
| 2023-03-11 | Galatasaray | 1-0 | Kasımpaşa | Süper Lig |
| 2022-09-11 | Kasımpaşa | 2-3 | Galatasaray | Süper Lig |
| 2022-07-24 | Galatasaray | 2-1 | Kasımpaşa | Friendlies Clubs |
| 2022-01-20 | Galatasaray | 1-3 | Kasımpaşa | Süper Lig |
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