Kasımpaşa vs Samsunspor preview
Kasımpaşa faces Samsunspor with a 41% chance of winning compared to 32% for Samsunspor. The most likely scoreline predicted is 2-1, which occurs at a rate of 10%. Kasımpaşa's expected goals stand at 1.86, while Samsunspor's is lower at 1.12.
Both teams to score is projected at 58%, and Over 2.5 goals is at 57%. Kasımpaşa's recent form shows L-D-W-D-D-W, while Samsunspor has struggled with L-L-L-L-L-W. The confidence grade for this match is C, indicating uncertainty. If Kasımpaşa's defense falters or Samsunspor improves, the predictions could change.
Kasımpaşa vs Samsunspor: model vs market
| Source | Kasımpaşa | Draw | Samsunspor |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 53% | 25% | 22% |
| Market | 37% | 28% | 35% |
| Published | 41% | 27% | 32% |
| Edge | +16% | -3% | -13% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.85 vs 1.13.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Kasımpaşa below the model: +16.1 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.65, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update.
Kasımpaşa vs Samsunspor odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Kasımpaşa, 7 snapshots since 2026-10-11.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kasımpaşa | 2.54 | 2.50 | -0.04 |
| Draw | 3.40 | 3.37 | -0.03 |
| Samsunspor | 2.63 | 2.62 | -0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Kasımpaşa and Samsunspor expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.98
- Attack rating (Kasımpaşa / Samsunspor)
- 0.91 / 0.92
- Defence rating (Kasımpaşa / Samsunspor)
- 1.01 / 1.37
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Kasımpaşa vs Samsunspor score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Kasımpaşa goals. Columns: Samsunspor goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Kasımpaşa vs Samsunspor goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 58%
- No goals (0–0)
- 6%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Kasımpaşa vs Samsunspor
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Kasımpaşa | 41% | 2.43 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.72 | |
| Samsunspor | 32% | 3.13 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 57% | 1.75 |
| Under 2.5 | 43% | 2.34 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 58% | 1.72 |
| No | 42% | 2.38 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Kasımpaşa or draw) | 68% | 1.47 |
| 12 (either side) | 73% | 1.37 | |
| X2 (draw or Samsunspor) | 59% | 1.70 | |
| Handicap -1 | Kasımpaşa win by 2+ | 31% | 3.23 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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| 1 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Kasımpaşa and Samsunspor recent form
Kasımpaşa
2W 3D 1L
Samsunspor
1W 0D 5L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Kasımpaşa at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-3-0
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 3
- They have won 2 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- 59% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Samsunspor away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-2
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 0.67
- Goals against / match
- 0.67
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 3
- They have won 1 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.3 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 6 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Kasımpaşa at home only, Samsunspor away only.
Kasımpaşa vs Samsunspor head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Kasımpaşa 0 · draws 1 · Samsunspor 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-30 | Kasımpaşa | 0-1 | Samsunspor | Süper Lig |
| 2025-09-17 | Samsunspor | 0-0 | Kasımpaşa | Süper Lig |
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
- Çorum FK vs Rizespor — team news & stats 2026-10-16
- Erzurumspor FK vs Eyüpspor 2026-10-17
- Gençlerbirliği S.K. vs Galatasaray 2026-10-17
- Amed v Konyaspor — match page 2026-10-17
- Fenerbahçe vs Alanyaspor — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Kocaelispor vs Göztepe 2026-10-18
- Başakşehir v Gaziantep FK — match page 2026-10-18
- Trabzonspor v Beşiktaş — match page 2026-10-19
Before and after this match
- Kasımpaşa, previous: Galatasaray v Kasımpaşa analysis
- Samsunspor, previous: Samsunspor vs Trabzonspor prediction