Kocaelispor vs Göztepe preview
In the Süper Lig fixture between Kocaelispor and Göztepe, the 1X2 probabilities show Kocaelispor at 35% and Göztepe at 37%. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, with an 8% chance. Kocaelispor has an expected goals figure of 1.40, while Göztepe sits at 1.32.
Both teams to score has a 56% probability, and Over 2.5 goals stands at 51%. Recent form indicates Kocaelispor has won 4 of their last 6 matches, while Göztepe has struggled with only 1 win in their last 6. The head-to-head record shows Kocaelispor has not won against Göztepe, with 2 draws in their last 2 meetings. A shift in form for Göztepe could challenge these predictions.
Kocaelispor vs Göztepe: model vs market
| Source | Kocaelispor | Draw | Göztepe |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 38% | 28% | 34% |
| Market | 34% | 28% | 38% |
| Published | 35% | 28% | 37% |
| Edge | +3% | 0% | -4% |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.65, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update.
Kocaelispor vs Göztepe odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Göztepe, 6 snapshots since 2026-10-12.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kocaelispor | 2.67 | 2.72 | +0.05 |
| Draw | 3.24 | 3.35 | +0.11 |
| Göztepe | 2.88 | 2.48 | -0.40 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Kocaelispor and Göztepe expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.71
- Attack rating (Kocaelispor / Göztepe)
- 0.74 / 1.34
- Defence rating (Kocaelispor / Göztepe)
- 0.80 / 1.28
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Kocaelispor vs Göztepe score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Kocaelispor goals. Columns: Göztepe goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Kocaelispor vs Göztepe goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 56%
- No goals (0–0)
- 8%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Kocaelispor vs Göztepe
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Kocaelispor | 35% | 2.84 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.57 | |
| Göztepe | 37% | 2.72 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 51% | 1.96 |
| Under 2.5 | 49% | 2.04 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56% | 1.78 |
| No | 44% | 2.29 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Kocaelispor or draw) | 63% | 1.58 |
| 12 (either side) | 72% | 1.39 | |
| X2 (draw or Göztepe) | 65% | 1.54 | |
| Handicap -1 | Göztepe win by 2+ | 16% | 6.38 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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Kocaelispor and Göztepe recent form
Kocaelispor
4W 0D 2L
Göztepe
1W 2D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Kocaelispor at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 1.67
- Goals against / match
- 0.00
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 3
- They have won 4 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 6 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
Göztepe away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-2-1
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 2.75
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 0 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They average 2.3 goals per game on the road against 1.3 at home.
- They have converted 3 of 5 penalties (60%).
League matches this season before kick-off: Kocaelispor at home only, Göztepe away only.
Kocaelispor vs Göztepe head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Kocaelispor 0 · draws 2 · Göztepe 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-18 | Kocaelispor | 1-1 | Göztepe | Süper Lig |
| 2025-11-23 | Göztepe | 0-0 | Kocaelispor | Süper Lig |
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
- Çorum FK vs Rizespor — team news & stats 2026-10-16
- Erzurumspor FK vs Eyüpspor 2026-10-17
- Gençlerbirliği S.K. vs Galatasaray 2026-10-17
- Amed v Konyaspor — match page 2026-10-17
- Fenerbahçe vs Alanyaspor — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Kasımpaşa vs Samsunspor — team news & stats 2026-10-18
- Başakşehir v Gaziantep FK — match page 2026-10-18
- Trabzonspor v Beşiktaş — match page 2026-10-19
Before and after this match
- Kocaelispor, previous: Beşiktaş vs Kocaelispor prediction
- Göztepe, previous: Eyüpspor vs Göztepe: odds and pick