Başakşehir vs Gaziantep FK preview
In the Süper Lig fixture, Başakşehir has a 57% chance to win against Gaziantep FK, who has a 20% chance. The most likely scoreline is 2-0, which aligns with Başakşehir's expected goals of 1.93 compared to Gaziantep FK's 0.95.
While Başakşehir has a strong recent head-to-head record with 2 wins against Gaziantep FK, their recent form shows mixed results, with 2 draws and 3 losses in their last 6 matches. Gaziantep FK comes off a win but has also struggled, losing 3 of their last 6. This inconsistency could impact the outcome, particularly if both teams manage to score, as indicated by the 53% probability for both teams to score.
Başakşehir vs Gaziantep FK: model vs market
| Source | Başakşehir | Draw | Gaziantep FK |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 59% | 24% | 17% |
| Market | 56% | 23% | 21% |
| Published | 57% | 23% | 20% |
| Edge | +3% | +1% | -4% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.92 vs 0.95.
- The market prices Başakşehir below the model: +3.2 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.72, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update.
Başakşehir vs Gaziantep FK odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Başakşehir, 6 snapshots since 2026-10-12.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Başakşehir | 1.67 | 1.67 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 4.10 | 4.00 | -0.10 |
| Gaziantep FK | 4.45 | 4.47 | +0.02 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Başakşehir and Gaziantep FK expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.87
- Attack rating (Başakşehir / Gaziantep FK)
- 1.09 / 0.76
- Defence rating (Başakşehir / Gaziantep FK)
- 1.02 / 1.19
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Başakşehir vs Gaziantep FK score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Başakşehir goals. Columns: Gaziantep FK goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Başakşehir vs Gaziantep FK goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 53%
- No goals (0–0)
- 7%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Başakşehir vs Gaziantep FK
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Başakşehir | 57% | 1.77 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.26 | |
| Gaziantep FK | 20% | 5.02 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 55% | 1.83 |
| Under 2.5 | 45% | 2.21 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 53% | 1.87 |
| No | 47% | 2.15 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Başakşehir or draw) | 80% | 1.25 |
| 12 (either side) | 77% | 1.31 | |
| X2 (draw or Gaziantep FK) | 43% | 2.31 | |
| Handicap -1 | Başakşehir win by 2+ | 36% | 2.80 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Başakşehir and Gaziantep FK recent form
Başakşehir
1W 2D 3L
Gaziantep FK
2W 1D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Başakşehir at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-1
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 2.25
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 4
- They have won 2 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
Gaziantep FK away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-0-1
- Win rate
- 67%
- Goals for / match
- 1.67
- Goals against / match
- 1.33
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 3
- They have won 2 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game on the road against 0.7 at home.
- 54% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Başakşehir at home only, Gaziantep FK away only.
Başakşehir vs Gaziantep FK head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Başakşehir 2 · draws 0 · Gaziantep FK 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-16 | Gaziantep FK | 1-2 | Başakşehir | Süper Lig |
| 2025-12-22 | Başakşehir | 5-1 | Gaziantep FK | Süper Lig |
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
- Çorum FK vs Rizespor — team news & stats 2026-10-16
- Erzurumspor FK vs Eyüpspor 2026-10-17
- Gençlerbirliği S.K. vs Galatasaray 2026-10-17
- Amed v Konyaspor — match page 2026-10-17
- Fenerbahçe vs Alanyaspor — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Kasımpaşa vs Samsunspor — team news & stats 2026-10-18
- Kocaelispor vs Göztepe 2026-10-18
- Trabzonspor v Beşiktaş — match page 2026-10-19
Before and after this match
- Başakşehir, previous: Konyaspor – Başakşehir, 2026-10-11
- Gaziantep FK, previous: Gaziantep FK v Çorum FK analysis