Konyaspor vs Başakşehir Prediction & Betting Tips 11/10/2026

Konyaspor vs Başakşehir: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Konyaspor	Draw	Başakşehir
Model	35%	28%	37%
Market	36%	28%	37%
Published	35%	28%	37%
Edge	-1%	0%	0%

Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.62, recorded 2026-10-06 — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update.

Konyaspor vs Başakşehir odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Başakşehir, 4 snapshots since 2026-10-05.

Opened 2.51Now 2.51 +0.00

Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
Selection	First	Latest	Move
Konyaspor	2.59	2.59	+0.00
Draw	3.35	3.35	+0.00
Başakşehir	2.51	2.51	+0.00

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Konyaspor and Başakşehir expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.34Konyaspor

1.40Başakşehir

Total expected goals: 2.74
Attack rating (Konyaspor / Başakşehir): 0.81 / 1.18
Defence rating (Konyaspor / Başakşehir): 0.98 / 1.11

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Konyaspor vs Başakşehir score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 7.7% 7.8% 6.3% 2.9% 1.4% 1 7.5% 13.3% 8.5% 3.9% 1.9% 2 5.8% 8.1% 5.7% 2.6% 1.3% 3 2.6% 3.6% 2.5% 1.2% 0.6% 4+ 1.2% 1.6% 1.2% 0.5% 0.3%

Rows: Konyaspor goals. Columns: Başakşehir goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Konyaspor vs Başakşehir goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 92%

Over 1.5 77%

Over 2.5 52%

Over 3.5 30%

Both teams to score: 57%
No goals (0–0): 8%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Konyaspor vs Başakşehir

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Konyaspor	35%	2.82
	Draw	28%	3.61
	Başakşehir	37%	2.71
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	52%	1.94
	Under 2.5	48%	2.07
Both teams to score	Yes	57%	1.76
	No	43%	2.32
Double chance	1X (Konyaspor or draw)	63%	1.58
	12 (either side)	72%	1.38
	X2 (draw or Başakşehir)	65%	1.55
Handicap -1	Başakşehir win by 2+	18%	5.60
	Push (exactly one goal)	19%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Compare the market for this pick

Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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Konyaspor and Başakşehir recent form

Konyaspor 1W 1D 4L

Başakşehir 2W 1D 3L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Konyaspor at home

Record (W-D-L): 1-0-2
Win rate: 33%
Goals for / match: 0.67
Goals against / match: 1.00
Clean sheets: 1 of 3

They have won 1 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Başakşehir away

Record (W-D-L): 0-0-2
Win rate: 0%
Goals for / match: 0.50
Goals against / match: 3.50
Clean sheets: 0 of 2

They have won 1 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Konyaspor at home only, Başakşehir away only.

Konyaspor vs Başakşehir head-to-head

Last 2 meetings: Konyaspor 1 · draws 0 · Başakşehir 1.

50% 0% 50%

KonyasporDrawsBaşakşehir

Previous meetings
Date	Home	Score	Away	Competition
2026-02-27	Başakşehir	2-0	Konyaspor	Süper Lig
2025-09-28	Konyaspor	2-1	Başakşehir	Süper Lig

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Prediction snapshot Başakşehir to win Predicted score 1 – 2 C Bet on Başakşehir