Alanyaspor vs Erzurumspor FK preview
In the Süper Lig fixture between Alanyaspor and Erzurumspor FK, Alanyaspor has a 49% chance to win, while Erzurumspor FK sits at 23%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, with a probability of 14%. Alanyaspor's expected goals stand at 1.54, compared to Erzurumspor FK's 0.80, indicating a stronger offensive performance from the home side.
However, the confidence grade is C, suggesting uncertainty in the outcome. Both teams to score has a probability of 45%, and Over 2.5 goals is at 42%. This means a low-scoring match is possible, which could affect the expected result. Recent form shows Alanyaspor with two wins in their last three matches, while Erzurumspor FK has struggled with two losses in their last three.
Alanyaspor vs Erzurumspor FK: model vs market
| Source | Alanyaspor | Draw | Erzurumspor FK |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 54% | 28% | 18% |
| Market | 47% | 29% | 24% |
| Published | 49% | 29% | 23% |
| Edge | +7% | -1% | -6% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.54 vs 0.80.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- The market prices Alanyaspor below the model: +6.6 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.05, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update.
Alanyaspor vs Erzurumspor FK odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Alanyaspor, 6 snapshots since 2026-10-04.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alanyaspor | 1.95 | 1.95 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 3.20 | 3.20 | +0.00 |
| Erzurumspor FK | 3.80 | 3.80 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Alanyaspor and Erzurumspor FK expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.34
- Attack rating (Alanyaspor / Erzurumspor FK)
- 1.06 / 0.76
- Defence rating (Alanyaspor / Erzurumspor FK)
- 0.88 / 0.97
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Alanyaspor vs Erzurumspor FK score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Alanyaspor goals. Columns: Erzurumspor FK goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Alanyaspor vs Erzurumspor FK goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 45%
- No goals (0–0)
- 11%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Alanyaspor vs Erzurumspor FK
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Alanyaspor | 49% | 2.05 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.50 | |
| Erzurumspor FK | 23% | 4.40 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 42% | 2.41 |
| Under 2.5 | 58% | 1.71 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 45% | 2.25 |
| No | 55% | 1.80 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Alanyaspor or draw) | 77% | 1.29 |
| 12 (either side) | 71% | 1.40 | |
| X2 (draw or Erzurumspor FK) | 51% | 1.95 | |
| Handicap -1 | Alanyaspor win by 2+ | 29% | 3.47 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 25% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Alanyaspor and Erzurumspor FK recent form
Alanyaspor
3W 2D 1L
Erzurumspor FK
2W 1D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Alanyaspor at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-0
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.50
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 2
- They have won 2 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
Erzurumspor FK away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-1-2
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.33
- Goals against / match
- 2.33
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 3
- They have won 1 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 0.4 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 5 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Alanyaspor at home only, Erzurumspor FK away only.
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