Alanyaspor vs Erzurumspor FK: model vs market
| Source | Alanyaspor | Draw | Erzurumspor FK |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 54% | 28% | 18% |
| Market | 49% | 28% | 23% |
| Published | 50% | 28% | 22% |
| Edge | +1% | 0% | -1% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.54 vs 0.80.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Alanyaspor vs Erzurumspor FK odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Alanyaspor, 13 snapshots since 2026-10-04.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alanyaspor | 1.95 | 1.90 | -0.05 |
| Draw | 3.20 | 3.30 | +0.10 |
| Erzurumspor FK | 3.80 | 4.07 | +0.27 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Alanyaspor and Erzurumspor FK expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.34
- Attack rating (Alanyaspor / Erzurumspor FK)
- 1.06 / 0.76
- Defence rating (Alanyaspor / Erzurumspor FK)
- 0.87 / 0.97
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Alanyaspor vs Erzurumspor FK score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Alanyaspor goals. Columns: Erzurumspor FK goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Alanyaspor vs Erzurumspor FK goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 44%
- No goals (0–0)
- 11%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Alanyaspor vs Erzurumspor FK
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Alanyaspor | 50% | 2.00 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.55 | |
| Erzurumspor FK | 22% | 4.61 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 42% | 2.41 |
| Under 2.5 | 58% | 1.71 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 44% | 2.25 |
| No | 56% | 1.80 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Alanyaspor or draw) | 78% | 1.28 |
| 12 (either side) | 72% | 1.39 | |
| X2 (draw or Erzurumspor FK) | 50% | 2.00 | |
| Handicap -1 | Alanyaspor win by 2+ | 29% | 3.47 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 25% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Alanyaspor and Erzurumspor FK recent form
Alanyaspor
3W 2D 1L
Erzurumspor FK
2W 1D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Alanyaspor at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-0
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.50
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 2
- They have won 3 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
Erzurumspor FK away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-1-2
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.33
- Goals against / match
- 2.33
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 3
- They have won 2 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 0.5 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 6 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Alanyaspor at home only, Erzurumspor FK away only.
Injuries & availability
Alanyaspor absences
-
Maestro
thigh injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.
Expected lineups
Alanyaspor lineup · 3-4-3
- 48 Paulo Victor
- 20 Fatih Aksoy
- 5 Fidan Aliti
- 3 Nuno Lima
- 11 Ruan Pereira Duarte
- 55 Baran Ali Gezek
- 42 Gaius Makouta
- 94 Florent Hadergjonaj
- 7 Ibrahim Kaya
- 19 Iván Cédric
- 16 Hwang Ui-Jo
Bench: Bedirhan Özyurt, Enes Keskin, Omar Ben Ali, Ianis Hagi, Meschak Elia, Arda Usluoğlu, Paolo Fernandes, Mert Furkan Bayram, İzzet Çelik, Yusuf Özdemir
Erzurumspor FK lineup · 4-1-4-1
- 1 Ertuğrul Taşkıran
- 15 Guram Giorbelidze
- 18 Nihad Mujakić
- 4 Amar Gerxhaliu
- 53 Orhan Ovacıklı
- 6 Brandon Baiye
- 20 Miguel Cardoso
- 65 Martín Rodríguez
- 42 Elisha Owusu
- 22 Mustafa Yumlu
- 10 Eren Tozlu
Bench: Festy Ebosele, Yakup Kırtay, Sefa Akgün, Ibrahim Diabaté, Emirhan Acar, Cengizhan Bayrak, Ömer Arda Kara, Matija Orbanić, Nariman Akhundzade, Mustafa Fettahoglu
Alanyaspor vs Erzurumspor FK head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Alanyaspor 2 · draws 1 · Erzurumspor FK 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021-05-11 | Alanyaspor | 2-3 | Erzurumspor FK | Süper Lig |
| 2021-01-21 | Erzurumspor FK | 1-1 | Alanyaspor | Süper Lig |
| 2021-01-14 | Alanyaspor | 4-1 | Erzurumspor FK | Türkiye Kupası |
| 2019-03-10 | Alanyaspor | 2-1 | Erzurumspor FK | Süper Lig |
| 2018-10-06 | Erzurumspor FK | 1-0 | Alanyaspor | Süper Lig |
Other Matchday 7 fixtures
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- Gençlerbirliği S.K. vs Amed — team news & stats 2026-10-10
- Samsunspor vs Trabzonspor 2026-10-10
- Rizespor vs Fenerbahçe 2026-10-10
- Konyaspor vs Başakşehir — team news & stats 2026-10-11
- Gaziantep FK v Çorum FK — match page 2026-10-11
- Beşiktaş v Kocaelispor — match page 2026-10-11
- Eyüpspor vs Göztepe — team news & stats 2026-10-12
Before and after this match
- Alanyaspor, next: Fenerbahçe v Alanyaspor analysis
- Erzurumspor FK, next: Erzurumspor FK v Eyüpspor analysis