Fenerbahçe vs Alanyaspor preview
In the Süper Lig fixture between Fenerbahçe and Alanyaspor, the 1X2 probabilities show Fenerbahçe at 60% to win, while Alanyaspor stands at 15%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 1-0, with a 12% chance of occurring. Fenerbahçe's expected goals are 1.78 compared to Alanyaspor's 0.80, indicating a stronger attacking performance.
However, the match could deviate from this forecast. Both teams to score is at 47%, suggesting a possibility that Alanyaspor could find the net. Additionally, Fenerbahçe's recent form includes a mix of results, which means they may not perform as expected. With a confidence grade of C, the outcome remains uncertain.
Fenerbahçe vs Alanyaspor: model vs market
| Source | Fenerbahçe | Draw | Alanyaspor |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 61% | 24% | 14% |
| Market | 71% | 18% | 11% |
| Published | 69% | 20% | 11% |
| Edge | -10% | +6% | +3% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.81 vs 0.76.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.33, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update.
Fenerbahçe vs Alanyaspor odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Fenerbahçe, 8 snapshots since 2026-10-11.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fenerbahçe | 1.33 | 1.29 | -0.04 |
| Draw | 5.05 | 5.05 | +0.00 |
| Alanyaspor | 8.25 | 8.68 | +0.43 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Fenerbahçe and Alanyaspor expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.57
- Attack rating (Fenerbahçe / Alanyaspor)
- 1.56 / 0.95
- Defence rating (Fenerbahçe / Alanyaspor)
- 0.65 / 0.78
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Fenerbahçe vs Alanyaspor score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Fenerbahçe goals. Columns: Alanyaspor goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Fenerbahçe vs Alanyaspor goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 45%
- No goals (0–0)
- 9%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Fenerbahçe vs Alanyaspor
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Fenerbahçe | 69% | 1.45 |
| Draw | 20% | 5.05 | |
| Alanyaspor | 11% | 8.72 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 47% | 2.11 |
| Under 2.5 | 53% | 1.90 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 45% | 2.20 |
| No | 55% | 1.83 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Fenerbahçe or draw) | 89% | 1.13 |
| 12 (either side) | 80% | 1.25 | |
| X2 (draw or Alanyaspor) | 31% | 3.20 | |
| Handicap -1 | Fenerbahçe win by 2+ | 37% | 2.73 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 25% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Fenerbahçe and Alanyaspor recent form
Fenerbahçe
3W 2D 1L
Alanyaspor
3W 2D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Fenerbahçe at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-0-1
- Win rate
- 67%
- Goals for / match
- 4.33
- Goals against / match
- 1.33
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 3
- They have won 3 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 2.7 goals per match.
- They average 4.3 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 6 matches.
- 50% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Alanyaspor away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-1
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.25
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 3 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
League matches this season before kick-off: Fenerbahçe at home only, Alanyaspor away only.
Fenerbahçe vs Alanyaspor head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Fenerbahçe 1 · draws 1 · Alanyaspor 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-18 | Alanyaspor | 2-3 | Fenerbahçe | Süper Lig |
| 2025-09-17 | Fenerbahçe | 2-2 | Alanyaspor | Süper Lig |
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
- Çorum FK vs Rizespor — team news & stats 2026-10-16
- Erzurumspor FK vs Eyüpspor 2026-10-17
- Gençlerbirliği S.K. vs Galatasaray 2026-10-17
- Amed v Konyaspor — match page 2026-10-17
- Kasımpaşa vs Samsunspor — team news & stats 2026-10-18
- Kocaelispor vs Göztepe 2026-10-18
- Başakşehir v Gaziantep FK — match page 2026-10-18
- Trabzonspor v Beşiktaş — match page 2026-10-19
Before and after this match
- Fenerbahçe, previous: Aston Villa vs Fenerbahçe: odds and pick
- Fenerbahçe, next: Fenerbahçe – Slavia Praha, 2026-10-20
- Alanyaspor, previous: Alanyaspor vs Erzurumspor FK: odds and pick