Aston Villa vs Fenerbahçe preview
Aston Villa faces Fenerbahçe with a 48% chance of winning compared to Fenerbahçe's 27%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with a 7% probability. Aston Villa's expected goals stand at 1.33, while Fenerbahçe has a higher expectation of 1.72.
Both teams have shown mixed recent form, with Aston Villa recording W-W-L-W-D-L and Fenerbahçe at W-D-D-L-W-W. The model suggests a 59% chance of Over 2.5 goals and a 61% likelihood for both teams to score. However, if Aston Villa's defense holds firm or Fenerbahçe struggles to convert chances, the expected outcomes could change.
Aston Villa vs Fenerbahçe: model vs market
| Source | Aston Villa | Draw | Fenerbahçe |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 29% | 26% | 45% |
| Market | 56% | 24% | 20% |
| Published | 49% | 24% | 26% |
| Edge | -28% | +2% | +26% |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.74, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update.
Aston Villa vs Fenerbahçe odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Aston Villa, 7 snapshots since 2026-10-07.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aston Villa | 1.72 | 1.67 | -0.05 |
| Draw | 3.90 | 3.92 | +0.02 |
| Fenerbahçe | 4.50 | 4.76 | +0.26 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Aston Villa and Fenerbahçe expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.05
- Attack rating (Aston Villa / Fenerbahçe)
- 1.12 / 1.34
- Defence rating (Aston Villa / Fenerbahçe)
- 1.01 / 0.63
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Aston Villa vs Fenerbahçe score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Aston Villa goals. Columns: Fenerbahçe goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Aston Villa vs Fenerbahçe goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 61%
- No goals (0–0)
- 6%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Aston Villa vs Fenerbahçe
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Aston Villa | 49% | 2.02 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.10 | |
| Fenerbahçe | 26% | 3.82 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 59% | 1.70 |
| Under 2.5 | 41% | 2.42 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61% | 1.63 |
| No | 39% | 2.59 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Aston Villa or draw) | 74% | 1.35 |
| 12 (either side) | 76% | 1.32 | |
| X2 (draw or Fenerbahçe) | 51% | 1.98 | |
| Handicap -1 | Aston Villa win by 2+ | 13% | 7.73 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 16% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Aston Villa and Fenerbahçe recent form
Aston Villa
3W 1D 2L
Fenerbahçe
3W 2D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Fenerbahçe away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-0
- Win rate
- 67%
- Goals for / match
- 1.33
- Goals against / match
- 0.67
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 3
- They have won 4 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 6 matches.
- 69% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Aston Villa at home only, Fenerbahçe away only.
Aston Villa vs Fenerbahçe head-to-head
Last 1 meetings: Aston Villa 1 · draws 0 · Fenerbahçe 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-22 | Fenerbahçe | 0-1 | Aston Villa | UEFA Europa League |
Other League Stage - 2 fixtures
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- Lask Linz vs Liverpool — team news & stats 2026-10-14
- Manchester City vs Paris Saint Germain 2026-10-14
- Bodo/Glimt vs Borussia Dortmund — team news & stats 2026-10-14
- Roma vs Real Madrid 2026-10-14
- Real Betis v FC Porto — match page 2026-10-14
- Shakhtar Donetsk vs AEK Athens FC — team news & stats 2026-10-14
- Slovan Bratislava vs VfB Stuttgart 2026-10-14
Before and after this match
- Aston Villa, previous: Aston Villa v Brentford analysis
- Fenerbahçe, previous: Rizespor – Fenerbahçe, 2026-10-10