Lask Linz vs Liverpool Prediction & Betting Tips 14/10/2026

Lask Linz vs Liverpool preview

In the UEFA Champions League fixture between Lask Linz and Liverpool, the 1X2 probabilities show Liverpool at 60% to win, compared to Lask Linz at 24%. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, with a 4% chance. Our model predicts a high likelihood of Over 2.5 goals at 75% and both teams to score at 65%.

Lask Linz's expected goals stand at 2.75, while Liverpool's is 1.15. Recent form indicates Lask Linz has drawn and lost in their last three matches, while Liverpool has won four out of their last six. If Lask Linz can improve their form, the match outcome could differ from predictions.

Lask Linz vs Liverpool: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Lask Linz	Draw	Liverpool
Model	70%	17%	13%
Market	9%	15%	76%
Published	24%	15%	60%
Edge	+61%	+2%	-63%

Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.29, recorded 2026-10-10 — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update.

Lask Linz vs Liverpool odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Liverpool, 7 snapshots since 2026-10-07.

Opened 1.25Now 1.25 +0.00

Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
Selection	First	Latest	Move
Lask Linz	10.50	10.50	+0.00
Draw	6.50	6.50	+0.00
Liverpool	1.25	1.25	+0.00

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Lask Linz and Liverpool expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.75Lask Linz

1.15Liverpool

Total expected goals: 3.91
Attack rating (Lask Linz / Liverpool): 1.60 / 1.08
Defence rating (Lask Linz / Liverpool): 0.84 / 0.92

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Lask Linz vs Liverpool score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 2.6% 1.7% 1.3% 0.5% 0.2% 1 4.9% 7.0% 3.7% 1.4% 0.5% 2 7.6% 8.8% 5.1% 2.0% 0.7% 3 7.0% 8.1% 4.7% 1.8% 0.7% 4+ 9.4% 10.8% 6.3% 2.4% 0.9%

Rows: Lask Linz goals. Columns: Liverpool goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Lask Linz vs Liverpool goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 97%

Over 1.5 91%

Over 2.5 75%

Over 3.5 55%

Both teams to score: 65%
No goals (0–0): 3%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Lask Linz vs Liverpool

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Lask Linz	24%	4.10
	Draw	15%	6.56
	Liverpool	60%	1.66
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	75%	1.34
	Under 2.5	25%	3.97
Both teams to score	Yes	65%	1.54
	No	35%	2.84
Double chance	1X (Lask Linz or draw)	40%	2.52
	12 (either side)	85%	1.18
	X2 (draw or Liverpool)	76%	1.32
Handicap -1	Liverpool win by 2+	5%	20.49
	Push (exactly one goal)	8%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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