Roma vs Real Madrid preview
In the UEFA Champions League fixture between Roma and Real Madrid, the 1X2 probabilities show Roma at 35%, Real Madrid at 42%, and a draw at 23%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 1-2, with a 5% chance. The model suggests a strong possibility of Over 2.5 goals at 67% and both teams to score at 64%.
Roma's expected goals stand at 2.22, while Real Madrid's is lower at 1.23. Recent form indicates Roma is on a positive run with four wins and two draws, while Real Madrid has been inconsistent with two wins and three losses in their last six matches. These factors could influence the outcome, particularly if Real Madrid improves its performance.
Why this pick: Roma vs Real Madrid
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Roma 10, Real Madrid 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Roma vs Real Madrid: model vs market
| Source | Roma | Draw | Real Madrid |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 59% | 22% | 19% |
| Market | 25% | 24% | 51% |
| Published | 34% | 23% | 43% |
| Edge | +34% | -2% | -31% |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.94, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update.
Roma vs Real Madrid odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Real Madrid, 7 snapshots since 2026-10-07.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Roma | 3.50 | 3.73 | +0.23 |
| Draw | 3.95 | 4.00 | +0.05 |
| Real Madrid | 1.91 | 1.86 | -0.05 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Roma and Real Madrid expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.45
- Attack rating (Roma / Real Madrid)
- 1.43 / 1.33
- Defence rating (Roma / Real Madrid)
- 0.73 / 0.83
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Roma vs Real Madrid score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Roma goals. Columns: Real Madrid goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Roma vs Real Madrid goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 64%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Roma vs Real Madrid
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Roma | 34% | 2.96 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.32 | |
| Real Madrid | 43% | 2.32 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 67% | 1.49 |
| Under 2.5 | 33% | 3.03 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 64% | 1.56 |
| No | 36% | 2.78 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Roma or draw) | 57% | 1.76 |
| 12 (either side) | 77% | 1.30 | |
| X2 (draw or Real Madrid) | 66% | 1.51 | |
| Handicap -1 | Real Madrid win by 2+ | 8% | 12.47 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 11% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Roma and Real Madrid recent form
Roma
4W 2D 0L
Real Madrid
4W 0D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Other League Stage - 2 fixtures
- Feyenoord v Como — match page 2026-10-14
- Lask Linz vs Liverpool — team news & stats 2026-10-14
- Manchester City vs Paris Saint Germain 2026-10-14
- Aston Villa v Fenerbahçe — match page 2026-10-14
- Bodo/Glimt vs Borussia Dortmund — team news & stats 2026-10-14
- Real Betis v FC Porto — match page 2026-10-14
- Shakhtar Donetsk vs AEK Athens FC — team news & stats 2026-10-14
- Slovan Bratislava vs VfB Stuttgart 2026-10-14
Before and after this match
- Roma, previous: Como v Roma analysis
- Real Madrid, previous: Real Madrid vs Villarreal: odds and pick