Como vs Roma Prediction & Betting Tips 11/10/2026

Como vs Roma preview

Como host Roma in a Serie A match where the model gives Roma a slight edge with a 38% probability of winning compared to Como's 36%. The expected goals suggest a competitive encounter, with Como at 1.86 and Roma at 2.19. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, indicating a close match.

Both teams to score has a strong likelihood at 76%, while Over 2.5 goals stands even higher at 77%. Como's recent form shows they have won four of their last five matches, but Roma's unbeaten streak of six games could pose a challenge. If Como's defense falters, it could lead to a higher-scoring game than anticipated.

Why this pick: Como vs Roma

Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Como 10, Roma 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.

ComoRoma

2.20 xG per 90 2.98

2.12 npxG per 90 2.81

9.3 PPDA 8.2

9.8 Deep completions per 90 11.9

1.97 xPTS per 90 2.53

xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.

Como vs Roma: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Como	Draw	Roma
Model	32%	23%	45%
Market	37%	27%	36%
Published	36%	26%	38%
Edge	-5%	-4%	+9%

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.19 vs 1.86.
The market prices Roma below the model: +8.7 percentage points of edge.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.69, recorded 2026-10-06 — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update.

Como vs Roma odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Roma, 40 snapshots since 2026-09-17.

Opened 2.69Now 2.60 -0.08

Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
Selection	First	Latest	Move
Como	2.56	2.50	-0.06
Draw	3.50	3.50	-0.00
Roma	2.69	2.60	-0.08

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Como and Roma expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.86Como

2.19Roma

Total expected goals: 4.05
Attack rating (Como / Roma): 1.67 / 1.75
Defence rating (Como / Roma): 1.06 / 0.86

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Como vs Roma score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 3.2% 2.4% 4.2% 3.0% 2.8% 1 1.8% 8.5% 7.8% 5.7% 5.2% 2 3.0% 6.6% 7.2% 5.3% 4.8% 3 1.9% 4.1% 4.5% 3.3% 3.0% 4+ 1.3% 2.9% 3.2% 2.3% 2.1%

Rows: Como goals. Columns: Roma goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Como vs Roma goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 97%

Over 1.5 93%

Over 2.5 77%

Over 3.5 58%

Both teams to score: 76%
No goals (0–0): 3%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Como vs Roma

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Como	36%	2.77
	Draw	26%	3.87
	Roma	38%	2.62
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	77%	1.30
	Under 2.5	23%	4.33
Both teams to score	Yes	76%	1.31
	No	24%	4.24
Double chance	1X (Como or draw)	62%	1.62
	12 (either side)	74%	1.35
	X2 (draw or Roma)	64%	1.56
Handicap -1	Roma win by 2+	27%	3.70
	Push (exactly one goal)	18%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Compare the market for this pick

Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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