Why this pick: Como vs Roma
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Como 10, Roma 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Como vs Roma: model vs market
| Source | Como | Draw | Roma |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 33% | 23% | 44% |
| Market | 38% | 27% | 35% |
| Published | 37% | 26% | 37% |
| Edge | -1% | -1% | +2% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.17 vs 1.87.
- The market prices Roma below our published probability: +2.3 percentage points of edge.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Como vs Roma odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Roma, 49 snapshots since 2026-09-17.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Como | 2.56 | 2.51 | -0.06 |
| Draw | 3.50 | 3.50 | -0.00 |
| Roma | 2.69 | 2.75 | +0.06 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Como and Roma expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 4.04
- Attack rating (Como / Roma)
- 1.67 / 1.75
- Defence rating (Como / Roma)
- 1.06 / 0.86
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Como vs Roma score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Como goals. Columns: Roma goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Como vs Roma goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 76%
- No goals (0–0)
- 3%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Como vs Roma
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Como | 37% | 2.73 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.81 | |
| Roma | 37% | 2.70 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 77% | 1.30 |
| Under 2.5 | 23% | 4.31 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 76% | 1.31 |
| No | 24% | 4.23 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Como or draw) | 63% | 1.59 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.36 | |
| X2 (draw or Roma) | 63% | 1.58 | |
| Handicap -1 | Roma win by 2+ | 27% | 3.76 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Como and Roma recent form
Como
4W 1D 1L
Roma
4W 2D 0L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Como at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 1
- They have won 3 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
Roma away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 3.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.00
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 2
- They have won 4 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 2.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 5 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Como at home only, Roma away only.
Injuries & availability
Como absences
-
M. Kean
leg injury
Roma absences
- B. Cristante injury
- K. Koulierakis knock
-
M. Bah
knee injury
- M. Svilar toe injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.
Expected lineups
Como lineup · 4-2-3-1
- 1 J. Butez
- 16 Kaiki
- 99 T. Chalobah
- 4 Jacobo Ramón Naveros
- 27 Yan Couto
- 7 L. da Cunha
- 5 M. Perrone
- 8 M. Caqueret
- 10 N. Paz
- 11 Assane Diao
- 9 T. Douvikas
Bench: M. Kempf, Álex Valle, Luis Milla, A. Dossena, A. Lahdo, Jesús Rodríguez, E. Goldaniga, M. Baturina, S. Ricci, M. Vigorito, I. Smolčić, M. Liberali, J. Addai, Willy Kambwala Ndengushi, Robert Sánchez
Roma lineup · 3-4-2-1
- 95 P. Gollini
- 22 Hermoso
- 5 E. Ndicka
- 23 G. Mancini
- 43 Wesley
- 17 M. Koné
- 15 M. de Roon
- 20 N. Molina
- 7 L. Pellegrini
- 21 P. Dybala
- 14 D. Malen
Bench: D. Rensch, S. Castro, M. Soulé, L. Balerdi, D. Vásquez, N. Pisilli, G. De Marzi, E. Lulli, Rodrigo Mora, D. Ghilardi
Como vs Roma head-to-head
Last 4 meetings: Como 2 · draws 0 · Roma 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-15 | Como | 2-1 | Roma | Serie A |
| 2025-12-15 | Roma | 1-0 | Como | Serie A |
| 2025-03-02 | Roma | 2-1 | Como | Serie A |
| 2024-12-15 | Como | 2-0 | Roma | Serie A |
Other Matchday 6 fixtures
- Genoa vs Fiorentina — team news & stats 2026-10-10
- Inter vs Parma Calcio 1913 — team news & stats 2026-10-10
- Napoli v Frosinone — match page 2026-10-10
- Lazio v Monza — match page 2026-10-11
- Lecce vs Bologna 2026-10-11
- Sassuolo vs AC Milan — team news & stats 2026-10-11
- Cagliari vs Juventus 2026-10-11
- Atalanta vs Venezia 2026-10-12
Before and after this match
- Como, next: Feyenoord vs Como prediction
- Roma, next: Roma – Real Madrid, 2026-10-14