Napoli vs Frosinone Prediction & Betting Tips 11/10/2026

Napoli vs Frosinone preview

In the Serie A fixture between Napoli and Frosinone, the key number is Napoli's 54% probability to win in the 1X2 market. However, Frosinone's expected goals of 1.71 suggest they could pose a significant threat, potentially leading to a different outcome than expected.

The likelihood of Over 2.5 goals stands at 51%, while both teams to score is at 54%. This indicates that there could be multiple goals in the match, but Napoli's recent form, with only one win in their last six games, raises concerns about their ability to secure a victory. The confidence grade is B, reflecting a balanced assessment based on the probabilities and market odds.

Why this pick: Napoli vs Frosinone

Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Napoli 10, Frosinone 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.

NapoliFrosinone

1.55 xG per 90 1.56

1.55 npxG per 90 1.56

18.4 PPDA 13.3

9.2 Deep completions per 90 6.1

1.66 xPTS per 90 1.30

xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.

Napoli vs Frosinone: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Napoli	Draw	Frosinone
Model	20%	28%	51%
Market	65%	20%	14%
Published	54%	22%	24%
Edge	-45%	+8%	+37%

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.49, recorded 2026-10-06 — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update.

Napoli vs Frosinone odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Napoli, 40 snapshots since 2026-09-17.

Opened 1.40Now 1.44 +0.04

Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
Selection	First	Latest	Move
Napoli	1.40	1.44	+0.04
Draw	4.93	4.70	-0.23
Frosinone	7.23	6.50	-0.73

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Napoli and Frosinone expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.01Napoli

1.71Frosinone

Total expected goals: 2.72
Attack rating (Napoli / Frosinone): 1.16 / 1.54
Defence rating (Napoli / Frosinone): 0.94 / 0.67

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Napoli vs Frosinone score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 8.9% 9.0% 9.6% 5.5% 3.4% 1 4.4% 13.7% 9.7% 5.5% 3.5% 2 3.4% 5.8% 4.9% 2.8% 1.8% 3 1.1% 1.9% 1.7% 0.9% 0.6% 4+ 0.4% 0.6% 0.5% 0.3% 0.2%

Rows: Napoli goals. Columns: Frosinone goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Napoli vs Frosinone goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 91%

Over 1.5 78%

Over 2.5 51%

Over 3.5 29%

Both teams to score: 54%
No goals (0–0): 9%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Napoli vs Frosinone

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Napoli	54%	1.85
	Draw	22%	4.51
	Frosinone	24%	4.21
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	51%	1.96
	Under 2.5	49%	2.05
Both teams to score	Yes	54%	1.84
	No	46%	2.19
Double chance	1X (Napoli or draw)	76%	1.31
	12 (either side)	78%	1.28
	X2 (draw or Frosinone)	46%	2.18
Handicap -1	Napoli win by 2+	8%	12.50
	Push (exactly one goal)	12%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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