Updated

Serie A · Matchday 6

Napoli vs Frosinone

· Maradona Stadium, Naples· Referee Ermanno Feliciani

Full time3 – 0

Alin prediction was Napoli to win

Bblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 2 – 1

6% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
NapoliDrawFrosinone

Why this pick: Napoli vs Frosinone

Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Napoli 10, Frosinone 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.

NapoliFrosinone
1.55 xG per 90 1.56
1.55 npxG per 90 1.56
18.4 PPDA 13.3
9.2 Deep completions per 90 6.1
1.66 xPTS per 90 1.30

xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.

Napoli vs Frosinone: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceNapoliDrawFrosinone
Model20%29%51%
Market65%20%15%
Published54%22%24%
Edge-11%+2%+9%

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Napoli vs Frosinone odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Napoli, 48 snapshots since 2026-09-17.

Opened 1.40Now 1.46 +0.06
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Napoli1.401.46+0.06
Draw4.934.75-0.18
Frosinone7.236.38-0.86

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Napoli and Frosinone expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.01Napoli
1.70Frosinone
Total expected goals
2.72
Attack rating (Napoli / Frosinone)
1.16 / 1.54
Defence rating (Napoli / Frosinone)
0.94 / 0.67

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Napoli vs Frosinone score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 8.9% 9.0% 9.6% 5.4% 3.4% 1 4.4% 13.7% 9.7% 5.5% 3.4% 2 3.4% 5.8% 4.9% 2.8% 1.7% 3 1.2% 2.0% 1.7% 0.9% 0.6% 4+ 0.4% 0.6% 0.5% 0.3% 0.2%

Rows: Napoli goals. Columns: Frosinone goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Napoli vs Frosinone goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 91%
Over 1.5 78%
Over 2.5 51%
Over 3.5 29%
Both teams to score
54%
No goals (0–0)
9%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Napoli vs Frosinone

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Napoli54%1.86
Draw22%4.51
Frosinone24%4.16
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.551%1.96
Under 2.549%2.04
Both teams to scoreYes54%1.84
No46%2.19
Double chance1X (Napoli or draw)76%1.32
12 (either side)78%1.29
X2 (draw or Frosinone)46%2.16
Handicap -1Napoli win by 2+8%12.37
Push (exactly one goal)12%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Napoli and Frosinone recent form

Napoli 2W 1D 3L
Frosinone 3W 2D 1L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Napoli at home

Record (W-D-L)
1-0-1
Win rate
50%
Goals for / match
1.00
Goals against / match
1.00
Clean sheets
1 of 2
  • They have won 2 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.

Frosinone away

Record (W-D-L)
1-1-0
Win rate
50%
Goals for / match
2.00
Goals against / match
0.50
Clean sheets
1 of 2
  • They have won 3 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.

League matches this season before kick-off: Napoli at home only, Frosinone away only.

Injuries & availability

Napoli absences

  • A. Buongiorno knee injury
  • A. Vergara calf injury
  • Alisson Santos muscle injury
  • C. Favasuli thigh injury
  • F. Anguissa groin injury
  • Giovane groin injury
  • M. Olivera groin injury

Frosinone absences

  • D. Birligea muscle injury
  • F. Grillitsch thigh injury

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Expected lineups

Napoli lineup · 3-4-2-1

  1. 1 A. Meret
  2. 5 B. Badiashile
  3. 13 Amir Rrahmani
  4. 16 Rafa Marín
  5. 37 L. Spinazzola
  6. 68 S. Lobotka
  7. 11 K. De Bruyne
  8. 22 G. Di Lorenzo
  9. 70 N. Lang
  10. 7 David Neres
  11. 19 R. Højlund

Bench: B. Gilmour, S. McTominay, N. Contini, L. Lucca, M. Politano, Giovane, S. Beukema, V. Milinković-Savić, Luca Marianucci

Frosinone lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 22 L. Palmisani
  2. 79 G. Bracaglia
  3. 2 G. Cittadini
  4. 3 G. Calvani
  5. 20 A. Oyono
  6. 14 G. Calò
  7. 73 P. Masini
  8. 17 G. Kvernadze
  9. 10 R. Schmid
  10. 7 F. Ghedjemis
  11. 9 A. Raimondo

Bench: W. Amey, M. Pisseri, Matteo Cichella, A. Zerbin, K. Akpoguma, I. Monterisi, S. Fini, L. Hasa, A. Terzić, Omar Fayed, T. Bobček, E. Tchato, S. Desplanches

Napoli vs Frosinone head-to-head

Last 7 meetings: Napoli 5 · draws 1 · Frosinone 1.

NapoliDrawsFrosinone
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2024-04-14Napoli2-2FrosinoneSerie A
2023-12-19Napoli0-4FrosinoneCoppa Italia
2023-08-19Frosinone1-3NapoliSerie A
2019-04-28Frosinone0-2NapoliSerie A
2018-12-08Napoli4-0FrosinoneSerie A
2016-05-14Napoli4-0FrosinoneSerie A
2016-01-10Frosinone1-5NapoliSerie A

Other Matchday 6 fixtures

Before and after this match