Atalanta vs Venezia Prediction & Betting Tips 11/10/2026

Atalanta vs Venezia preview

Atalanta faces Venezia with a 53% chance of winning, while Venezia has a 23% chance. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, which aligns with the expectation of Over 2.5 goals at 59% and both teams to score at 63%.

However, recent form shows Atalanta has lost three of their last six matches, while Venezia has lost all six. This could affect performance, making the match unpredictable. The expected goals suggest a close contest, with Atalanta at 1.49 and Venezia at 1.56. The confidence grade is B, indicating some uncertainty in the outcome based on blended probabilities and market odds.

Why this pick: Atalanta vs Venezia

Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Atalanta 10, Venezia 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.

AtalantaVenezia

1.13 xG per 90 1.57

1.13 npxG per 90 1.49

14.6 PPDA 9.6

7.9 Deep completions per 90 4.8

0.99 xPTS per 90 1.08

xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.

Atalanta vs Venezia: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Atalanta	Draw	Venezia
Model	34%	28%	37%
Market	59%	23%	18%
Published	53%	24%	23%
Edge	-25%	+6%	+19%

Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.66, recorded 2026-10-06 — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update.

Atalanta vs Venezia odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Atalanta, 40 snapshots since 2026-09-17.

Opened 1.69Now 1.57 -0.11

Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
Selection	First	Latest	Move
Atalanta	1.69	1.57	-0.11
Draw	3.88	4.10	+0.22
Venezia	5.17	5.25	+0.08

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Atalanta and Venezia expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.49Atalanta

1.56Venezia

Total expected goals: 3.05
Attack rating (Atalanta / Venezia): 0.82 / 1.12
Defence rating (Atalanta / Venezia): 1.17 / 1.39

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Atalanta vs Venezia score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 7.0% 5.2% 5.8% 3.0% 1.6% 1 4.9% 13.2% 8.6% 4.5% 2.5% 2 5.3% 8.2% 6.4% 3.3% 1.8% 3 2.6% 4.1% 3.2% 1.6% 0.9% 4+ 1.4% 2.1% 1.6% 0.9% 0.5%

Rows: Atalanta goals. Columns: Venezia goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Atalanta vs Venezia goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 93%

Over 1.5 83%

Over 2.5 59%

Over 3.5 36%

Both teams to score: 63%
No goals (0–0): 7%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Atalanta vs Venezia

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Atalanta	53%	1.88
	Draw	24%	4.13
	Venezia	23%	4.42
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	59%	1.70
	Under 2.5	41%	2.42
Both teams to score	Yes	63%	1.58
	No	37%	2.73
Double chance	1X (Atalanta or draw)	77%	1.29
	12 (either side)	76%	1.32
	X2 (draw or Venezia)	47%	2.13
Handicap -1	Atalanta win by 2+	17%	5.77
	Push (exactly one goal)	17%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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