Why this pick: Atalanta vs Venezia
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Atalanta 10, Venezia 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Atalanta vs Venezia: model vs market
| Source | Atalanta | Draw | Venezia |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 35% | 28% | 37% |
| Market | 61% | 22% | 17% |
| Published | 54% | 23% | 22% |
| Edge | -7% | +2% | +5% |
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Atalanta vs Venezia odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Atalanta, 52 snapshots since 2026-09-17.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Atalanta | 1.69 | 1.57 | -0.11 |
| Draw | 3.88 | 4.40 | +0.52 |
| Venezia | 5.17 | 5.50 | +0.33 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Atalanta and Venezia expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.05
- Attack rating (Atalanta / Venezia)
- 0.82 / 1.12
- Defence rating (Atalanta / Venezia)
- 1.17 / 1.39
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Atalanta vs Venezia score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Atalanta goals. Columns: Venezia goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Atalanta vs Venezia goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 63%
- No goals (0–0)
- 7%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Atalanta vs Venezia
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Atalanta | 54% | 1.84 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.27 | |
| Venezia | 22% | 4.50 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 59% | 1.70 |
| Under 2.5 | 41% | 2.42 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63% | 1.58 |
| No | 37% | 2.73 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Atalanta or draw) | 78% | 1.29 |
| 12 (either side) | 77% | 1.31 | |
| X2 (draw or Venezia) | 46% | 2.19 | |
| Handicap -1 | Atalanta win by 2+ | 18% | 5.67 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 17% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Atalanta and Venezia recent form
Atalanta
3W 0D 3L
Venezia
0W 0D 6L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Atalanta at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-0-1
- Win rate
- 67%
- Goals for / match
- 1.33
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 3
- They have won 2 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
Venezia away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-0-2
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 2.50
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 2
- They have won 0 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 5 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Atalanta at home only, Venezia away only.
Injuries & availability
Atalanta absences
- G. Raspadori thigh injury
-
I. Hien
muscle injury
-
K. Sulemana
knee injury
-
O. Kossounou
thigh injury
Venezia absences
-
A. Adorante
hernia
-
A. Bella-Kotchap
thigh injury
-
B. Franjic
shoulder injury
-
G. Busio
thigh injury
-
M. Sverko
hip injury
-
P. Mazzocchi
injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.
Expected lineups
Atalanta lineup · 4-2-3-1
- 29 M. Carnesecchi
- 77 D. Zappacosta
- 42 G. Scalvini
- 31 T. Kristensen
- 16 R. Bellanova
- 13 Éderson
- 19 F. Kessié
- 11 J. Rowe
- 99 E. Elmas
- 17 C. De Ketelaere
- 90 N. Krstović
Bench: Mario Pasalic, G. Scamacca, L. Samardžić, G. Raspadori, S. Kolašinac, R. ObriÄ, J. Idele, L. Bernasconi, M. Sonzogni, M. Sportiello, N. Zalewski, G. Gaetano
Venezia lineup · 3-5-2
- 1 F. Stanković
- 2 M. Moreno
- 15 Juan Jesus
- 25 R. Halhal
- 14 Thierry Correia
- 26 T. Bašić
- 19 S. Sohm
- 71 Kike Pérez
- 18 A. Hainaut
- 45 A. Adams
- 10 J. Yeboah
Bench: J. Schingtienne, R. Haps, A. Rrahmani, Lamine Dabo, R. Mohammed, R. Sagrado, Þ. Helgason, L. Lauberbach, M. Dagasso, S. Panada, K. Lisman, Toni Fernández, A. Gomes, L. Montipò
Atalanta vs Venezia head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Atalanta 4 · draws 1 · Venezia 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-01 | Atalanta | 0-0 | Venezia | Serie A |
| 2024-10-20 | Venezia | 0-2 | Atalanta | Serie A |
| 2022-04-23 | Venezia | 1-3 | Atalanta | Serie A |
| 2022-01-12 | Atalanta | 2-0 | Venezia | Coppa Italia |
| 2021-11-30 | Atalanta | 4-0 | Venezia | Serie A |
Other Matchday 6 fixtures
- Genoa vs Fiorentina — team news & stats 2026-10-10
- Inter vs Parma Calcio 1913 — team news & stats 2026-10-10
- Napoli v Frosinone — match page 2026-10-10
- Como v Roma — match page 2026-10-11
- Lazio v Monza — match page 2026-10-11
- Lecce vs Bologna 2026-10-11
- Sassuolo vs AC Milan — team news & stats 2026-10-11
- Cagliari vs Juventus 2026-10-11
Before and after this match
- Atalanta, next: Atalanta vs Pafos: odds and pick
- Venezia, next: Venezia v Napoli analysis