Why this pick: Sassuolo vs AC Milan
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Sassuolo 10, AC Milan 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Sassuolo vs AC Milan: model vs market
| Source | Sassuolo | Draw | AC Milan |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 47% | 25% | 28% |
| Market | 23% | 25% | 52% |
| Published | 29% | 25% | 46% |
| Edge | +6% | 0% | -6% |
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Sassuolo vs AC Milan odds movement
Median bookmaker price on AC Milan, 49 snapshots since 2026-09-17.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sassuolo | 4.52 | 4.20 | -0.32 |
| Draw | 3.87 | 3.76 | -0.11 |
| AC Milan | 1.75 | 1.85 | +0.10 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Sassuolo and AC Milan expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.51
- Attack rating (Sassuolo / AC Milan)
- 1.32 / 1.14
- Defence rating (Sassuolo / AC Milan)
- 1.13 / 1.16
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Sassuolo vs AC Milan score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Sassuolo goals. Columns: AC Milan goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Sassuolo vs AC Milan goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 69%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Sassuolo vs AC Milan
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sassuolo | 29% | 3.46 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.94 | |
| AC Milan | 46% | 2.19 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 68% | 1.47 |
| Under 2.5 | 32% | 3.13 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 69% | 1.45 |
| No | 31% | 3.24 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Sassuolo or draw) | 54% | 1.84 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.34 | |
| X2 (draw or AC Milan) | 71% | 1.41 | |
| Handicap -1 | AC Milan win by 2+ | 14% | 7.40 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 14% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Sassuolo and AC Milan recent form
Sassuolo
2W 2D 2L
AC Milan
3W 2D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Sassuolo at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 2.50
- Goals against / match
- 1.50
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 2
- They have won 2 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
AC Milan away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-2-0
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.67
- Goals against / match
- 1.33
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 3
- They have won 3 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
League matches this season before kick-off: Sassuolo at home only, AC Milan away only.
Injuries & availability
Sassuolo absences
-
C. Volpato
thigh injury
-
D. Boloca
muscle injury
-
E. Pieragnolo
knee injury
-
F. Cande
knee injury
-
I. Kone
broken leg
-
J. Idzes
muscle injury
-
S. Walukiewicz
muscle injury
-
Y. Paz
knee injury
AC Milan absences
-
A. Saelemaekers
ankle injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.
Expected lineups
Sassuolo lineup · 4-3-3
- 49 A. Murić
- 3 J. Doig
- 16 F. Leysen
- 15 D. Ćaleta-Car
- 20 I. Van der Brempt
- 50 D. Bakola
- 18 N. Matić
- 17 Vasilije Adžić
- 45 A. Laurienté
- 94 S. Esposito
- 10 D. Berardi
Bench: Fali Candé, S. Walukiewicz, C. Volpato, A. Ghion, K. Bowie, G. Satalino, L. Skjellerup, B. Domínguez, C. Odenthal, Rafael Obrador, L. Lipani, K. Thorstvedt, S. Cinquegrano, I. Sulemana, S. Turati
AC Milan lineup · 4-4-1-1
- 16 M. Maignan
- 2 P. Estupiñán
- 31 S. Pavlović
- 46 M. Gabbia
- 34 Mario Gila
- 22 Diego Moreira
- 12 A. Rabiot
- 80 Y. Musah
- 21 S. Chukwueze
- 11 C. Pulišić
- 9 Gonçalo Ramos
Bench: K. De Winter, R. Loftus-Cheek, S. Bocoum, L. Modrić, O. Hutchinson, F. Tomori, C. Comotto, A. Jashari, D. Bartesaghi, L. P. Bouyer, F. Terracciano, A. Cissè, F. Camarda, L. Torriani
Sassuolo vs AC Milan head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Sassuolo 4 · draws 3 · AC Milan 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-03 | Sassuolo | 2-0 | AC Milan | Serie A |
| 2025-12-14 | AC Milan | 2-2 | Sassuolo | Serie A |
| 2024-12-03 | AC Milan | 6-1 | Sassuolo | Coppa Italia |
| 2024-04-14 | Sassuolo | 3-3 | AC Milan | Serie A |
| 2023-12-30 | AC Milan | 1-0 | Sassuolo | Serie A |
| 2023-01-29 | AC Milan | 2-5 | Sassuolo | Serie A |
| 2022-08-30 | Sassuolo | 0-0 | AC Milan | Serie A |
| 2022-05-22 | Sassuolo | 0-3 | AC Milan | Serie A |
| 2021-11-28 | AC Milan | 1-3 | Sassuolo | Serie A |
| 2021-04-21 | AC Milan | 1-2 | Sassuolo | Serie A |
Other Matchday 6 fixtures
- Genoa vs Fiorentina — team news & stats 2026-10-10
- Inter vs Parma Calcio 1913 — team news & stats 2026-10-10
- Napoli v Frosinone — match page 2026-10-10
- Como v Roma — match page 2026-10-11
- Lazio v Monza — match page 2026-10-11
- Lecce vs Bologna 2026-10-11
- Cagliari vs Juventus 2026-10-11
- Atalanta vs Venezia 2026-10-12
Before and after this match
- Sassuolo, next: Frosinone – Sassuolo, 2026-10-16
- AC Milan, next: Red Bull Salzburg v AC Milan analysis