Why this pick: Lazio vs Monza
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Lazio 10, Monza 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Lazio vs Monza: model vs market
| Source | Lazio | Draw | Monza |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 36% | 27% | 37% |
| Market | 56% | 24% | 19% |
| Published | 51% | 25% | 24% |
| Edge | -5% | +1% | +5% |
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Lazio vs Monza odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Lazio, 49 snapshots since 2026-09-17.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lazio | 1.71 | 1.70 | -0.01 |
| Draw | 3.73 | 3.92 | +0.19 |
| Monza | 5.17 | 5.00 | -0.17 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Lazio and Monza expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.40
- Attack rating (Lazio / Monza)
- 1.08 / 1.26
- Defence rating (Lazio / Monza)
- 1.16 / 1.19
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Lazio vs Monza score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Lazio goals. Columns: Monza goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Lazio vs Monza goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 69%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Lazio vs Monza
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Lazio | 51% | 1.95 |
| Draw | 25% | 4.00 | |
| Monza | 24% | 4.22 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 66% | 1.52 |
| Under 2.5 | 34% | 2.94 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 69% | 1.46 |
| No | 31% | 3.19 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Lazio or draw) | 76% | 1.31 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.33 | |
| X2 (draw or Monza) | 49% | 2.05 | |
| Handicap -1 | Lazio win by 2+ | 19% | 5.16 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 17% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Lazio and Monza recent form
Lazio
4W 1D 1L
Monza
2W 1D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Lazio at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-0
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.50
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 2
- They have won 4 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 5 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
Monza away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-1-2
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.33
- Goals against / match
- 2.67
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 3
- They have won 1 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
League matches this season before kick-off: Lazio at home only, Monza away only.
Injuries & availability
Lazio absences
-
A. Furlanetto
knee injury
- A. Gudmundsson shoulder injury
-
A. Marusic
muscle injury
-
L. Pellegrini
inactive
- M. Cancellieri leg injury
-
N. Rovella
calf injury
Monza absences
-
I. Toure
contusion
-
J. Ziolkowski
foot injury
-
M. Pessina
knee injury
- O. Forson inactive
-
P. Ciurria
muscle injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.
Expected lineups
Lazio lineup · 4-3-3
- 35 C. Mandas
- 17 Nuno Tavares
- 25 O. Provstgaard
- 5 D. Doekhi
- 15 R. Floriani Mussolini
- 24 K. Taylor
- 21 R. Belahyane
- 16 D. Frattesi
- 10 M. Zaccagni
- 14 T. Noslin
- 11 G. Isaksen
Bench: Diogo Leite, F. Dele-Bashiru, A. Pinamonti, Pedraza, A. Przyborek, M. Lazzari, D. Cataldi, J. Šutalo, E. Motta, D. Renzetti, F. Serra, V. Farcomeni
Monza lineup · 3-4-2-1
- 1 N. Törnqvist
- 44 A. Carboni
- 3 L. Lucchesi
- 60 E. Kouadio
- 7 Ricardo Mangas
- 14 E. Akinsanmiro
- 90 M. Folorunsho
- 19 S. Birindelli
- 22 E. Zeballos
- 16 C. Ngonge
- 9 Gustavo Varela
Bench: S. Goglichidze, Y. Maye, V. Antov, M. Ondoa, P. Cutrone, D. Thiam, L. Colombo, A. Bakoune, A. Colpani, A. Strajnar, Jay Robinson, Dany Mota, M. Mout
Lazio vs Monza head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Lazio 4 · draws 2 · Monza 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-02-09 | Lazio | 5-1 | Monza | Serie A |
| 2024-11-10 | Monza | 0-1 | Lazio | Serie A |
| 2024-05-04 | Monza | 2-2 | Lazio | Serie A |
| 2023-09-23 | Lazio | 1-1 | Monza | Serie A |
| 2023-04-02 | Monza | 0-2 | Lazio | Serie A |
| 2022-11-10 | Lazio | 1-0 | Monza | Serie A |
Other Matchday 6 fixtures
- Genoa vs Fiorentina — team news & stats 2026-10-10
- Inter vs Parma Calcio 1913 — team news & stats 2026-10-10
- Napoli v Frosinone — match page 2026-10-10
- Como v Roma — match page 2026-10-11
- Lecce vs Bologna 2026-10-11
- Sassuolo vs AC Milan — team news & stats 2026-10-11
- Cagliari vs Juventus 2026-10-11
- Atalanta vs Venezia 2026-10-12
Before and after this match
- Lazio, next: Juventus v Lazio analysis
- Monza, next: Monza vs Cagliari: odds and pick