Lazio vs Monza Prediction & Betting Tips 11/10/2026

Lazio vs Monza preview

Lazio hosts Monza with a 54% probability of winning according to the model. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, which has an 8% chance of happening. Both teams to score has a 69% probability, while Over 2.5 goals stands at 66%. Lazio's expected goals are 1.68, slightly lower than Monza's 1.72, indicating a competitive match.

Recent form shows Lazio with three wins in their last five matches, while Monza has only two wins in their last five. In their last four encounters, Lazio has not lost, with two wins and two draws against Monza. The confidence grade is B, suggesting that while the probabilities are favorable for Lazio, unexpected outcomes could still occur.

Why this pick: Lazio vs Monza

Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Lazio 10, Monza 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.

LazioMonza

1.41 xG per 90 1.55

1.33 npxG per 90 1.46

16.8 PPDA 16.9

5.8 Deep completions per 90 3.9

1.31 xPTS per 90 1.28

xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.

Lazio vs Monza: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Lazio	Draw	Monza
Model	36%	26%	38%
Market	60%	24%	16%
Published	54%	25%	22%
Edge	-24%	+2%	+21%

Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.63, recorded 2026-10-06 — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update.

Lazio vs Monza odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Lazio, 40 snapshots since 2026-09-17.

Opened 1.71Now 1.58 -0.12

Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
Selection	First	Latest	Move
Lazio	1.71	1.58	-0.12
Draw	3.73	3.90	+0.17
Monza	5.17	5.80	+0.63

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Lazio and Monza expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.68Lazio

1.72Monza

Total expected goals: 3.40
Attack rating (Lazio / Monza): 1.08 / 1.26
Defence rating (Lazio / Monza): 1.16 / 1.19

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Lazio vs Monza score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 5.3% 3.8% 4.9% 2.8% 1.8% 1 3.7% 11.6% 8.3% 4.8% 3.0% 2 4.7% 8.1% 7.0% 4.0% 2.5% 3 2.6% 4.5% 3.9% 2.2% 1.4% 4+ 1.6% 2.8% 2.4% 1.4% 0.9%

Rows: Lazio goals. Columns: Monza goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Lazio vs Monza goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 95%

Over 1.5 87%

Over 2.5 66%

Over 3.5 44%

Both teams to score: 69%
No goals (0–0): 5%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Lazio vs Monza

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Lazio	54%	1.86
	Draw	25%	4.04
	Monza	22%	4.63
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	66%	1.51
	Under 2.5	34%	2.95
Both teams to score	Yes	69%	1.45
	No	31%	3.20
Double chance	1X (Lazio or draw)	78%	1.28
	12 (either side)	75%	1.33
	X2 (draw or Monza)	46%	2.16
Handicap -1	Lazio win by 2+	19%	5.24
	Push (exactly one goal)	17%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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