Juventus vs Lazio preview
Juventus faces Lazio with a 61% probability of winning, while Lazio has a 16% chance. The most likely scoreline is 2-0, with a 12% probability. Juventus has an expected goals figure of 2.43, compared to Lazio's 0.81, suggesting a solid advantage for the home team.
Juventus's recent form shows 3 wins and 2 draws in their last 6 matches, while Lazio is on a strong run with 6 consecutive wins. However, both teams have equal head-to-head records in their last 6 encounters, with 2 wins each and 2 draws. This could lead to an unexpected outcome, potentially impacting predictions for Over 2.5 goals or both teams to score.
Why this pick: Juventus vs Lazio
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Juventus 10, Lazio 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Juventus vs Lazio: model vs market
| Source | Juventus | Draw | Lazio |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 72% | 19% | 9% |
| Market | 57% | 25% | 18% |
| Published | 61% | 23% | 16% |
| Edge | +15% | -5% | -9% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.44 vs 0.80.
- The market prices Juventus below the model: +14.8 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.70, recorded — the top price across the 11 books we record, each at its own last update.
Juventus vs Lazio odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Juventus, 30 snapshots since 2026-10-03.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Juventus | 1.64 | 1.67 | +0.03 |
| Draw | 3.87 | 3.88 | +0.00 |
| Lazio | 5.34 | 5.20 | -0.14 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Juventus and Lazio expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.24
- Attack rating (Juventus / Lazio)
- 1.60 / 1.15
- Defence rating (Juventus / Lazio)
- 0.60 / 1.16
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Juventus vs Lazio score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Juventus goals. Columns: Lazio goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Juventus vs Lazio goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 52%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Juventus vs Lazio
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Juventus | 61% | 1.65 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.30 | |
| Lazio | 16% | 6.27 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 63% | 1.59 |
| Under 2.5 | 37% | 2.69 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 52% | 1.93 |
| No | 48% | 2.08 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Juventus or draw) | 84% | 1.19 |
| 12 (either side) | 77% | 1.30 | |
| X2 (draw or Lazio) | 39% | 2.55 | |
| Handicap -1 | Juventus win by 2+ | 51% | 1.97 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Juventus and Lazio recent form
Juventus
3W 2D 1L
Lazio
5W 1D 0L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Juventus at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-0
- Win rate
- 67%
- Goals for / match
- 1.67
- Goals against / match
- 0.33
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 3
- They have won 3 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 5 matches.
Lazio away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 1.67
- Goals against / match
- 0.33
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 3
- They have won 4 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 5 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Juventus at home only, Lazio away only.
Juventus vs Lazio head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Juventus 2 · draws 2 · Lazio 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-08 | Juventus | 2-2 | Lazio | Serie A |
| 2025-10-26 | Lazio | 1-0 | Juventus | Serie A |
| 2025-05-10 | Lazio | 1-1 | Juventus | Serie A |
| 2024-10-19 | Juventus | 1-0 | Lazio | Serie A |
| 2024-03-30 | Lazio | 1-0 | Juventus | Serie A |
| 2023-09-16 | Juventus | 3-1 | Lazio | Serie A |
Other Matchday 7 fixtures
- Venezia vs Napoli 2026-10-17
- Bologna vs Inter — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Roma v Genoa — match page 2026-10-17
- Udinese vs Lecce — team news & stats 2026-10-18
- Fiorentina vs Como 2026-10-18
- AC Milan vs Atalanta 2026-10-18
- Monza vs Cagliari 2026-10-19
- Parma Calcio 1913 v Torino — match page 2026-10-19
Before and after this match
- Juventus, previous: Celta Vigo vs Juventus: odds and pick
- Juventus, next: Juventus – Rennes, 2026-10-22
- Lazio, previous: Lazio – Monza, 2026-10-11