Bologna vs Inter preview
In the Serie A fixture between Bologna and Inter, the 1X2 probabilities show Inter at 56% to win, compared to Bologna's 20%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 1-2, occurring at a rate of 9%. Inter's recent form includes 4 wins in their last 6 matches, while Bologna has only managed 1 win in the same period.
The model indicates a strong chance for Over 2.5 goals at 71% and both teams to score at 70%. Bologna's expected goals stand at 1.45, while Inter's is higher at 2.21. However, if Bologna's defense improves or they manage to hold Inter to a draw, these predictions could change.
Why this pick: Bologna vs Inter
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Bologna 10, Inter 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Bologna vs Inter: model vs market
| Source | Bologna | Draw | Inter |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 27% | 23% | 50% |
| Market | 17% | 23% | 60% |
| Published | 20% | 23% | 57% |
| Edge | +10% | 0% | -10% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.29 vs 1.69.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.65, recorded — the top price across the 11 books we record, each at its own last update.
Bologna vs Inter odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Inter, 23 snapshots since 2026-10-03.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bologna | 5.45 | 5.55 | +0.10 |
| Draw | 3.91 | 4.16 | +0.25 |
| Inter | 1.62 | 1.59 | -0.03 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Bologna and Inter expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.99
- Attack rating (Bologna / Inter)
- 1.04 / 1.83
- Defence rating (Bologna / Inter)
- 1.07 / 1.24
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Bologna vs Inter score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Bologna goals. Columns: Inter goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Bologna vs Inter goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 75%
- No goals (0–0)
- 3%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Bologna vs Inter
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Bologna | 20% | 5.08 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.37 | |
| Inter | 57% | 1.74 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 76% | 1.32 |
| Under 2.5 | 24% | 4.17 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 75% | 1.34 |
| No | 25% | 3.97 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Bologna or draw) | 43% | 2.35 |
| 12 (either side) | 77% | 1.30 | |
| X2 (draw or Inter) | 80% | 1.24 | |
| Handicap -1 | Inter win by 2+ | 31% | 3.18 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Bologna and Inter recent form
Bologna
1W 2D 3L
Inter
3W 1D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Bologna at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-2-1
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.33
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 3
- They have won 0 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 0.6 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 5 matches.
Inter away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-0
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.50
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 2
- They have won 4 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 3.0 goals per match.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Bologna at home only, Inter away only.
Bologna vs Inter head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Bologna 1 · draws 3 · Inter 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-23 | Bologna | 3-3 | Inter | Serie A |
| 2026-01-04 | Inter | 3-1 | Bologna | Serie A |
| 2025-04-20 | Bologna | 1-0 | Inter | Serie A |
| 2025-01-15 | Inter | 2-2 | Bologna | Serie A |
| 2024-03-09 | Bologna | 0-1 | Inter | Serie A |
| 2023-10-07 | Inter | 2-2 | Bologna | Serie A |
Other Matchday 7 fixtures
- Frosinone v Sassuolo — match page 2026-10-16
- Venezia vs Napoli 2026-10-17
- Roma v Genoa — match page 2026-10-17
- Udinese vs Lecce — team news & stats 2026-10-18
- Fiorentina vs Como 2026-10-18
- AC Milan vs Atalanta 2026-10-18
- Juventus vs Lazio — team news & stats 2026-10-18
- Monza vs Cagliari 2026-10-19
Before and after this match
- Bologna, previous: Lecce – Bologna, 2026-10-11
- Inter, previous: Inter vs Club Brugge KV: odds and pick
- Inter, next: Inter vs Shakhtar Donetsk: odds and pick