Inter vs Shakhtar Donetsk Prediction & Betting Tips 21/10/2026

Inter vs Shakhtar Donetsk preview

In the UEFA Champions League fixture between Inter and Shakhtar Donetsk, the 1X2 probabilities show Inter at 36%, a draw at 25%, and Shakhtar Donetsk at 39%. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, with a 9% chance according to our model.

The expectation for Over 2.5 goals is 62%, while both teams to score stands at 65%. Inter's expected goals are 1.57, slightly lower than Shakhtar Donetsk's 1.65. A draw or a low-scoring match could make predictions less accurate, given the close probabilities and recent form of both teams.

Inter vs Shakhtar Donetsk: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Inter	Draw	Shakhtar Donetsk
Model	36%	25%	39%
Market	—	—	—
Published	36%	25%	39%
Edge	—	—	—

Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Inter and Shakhtar Donetsk expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.57Inter

1.65Shakhtar Donetsk

Total expected goals: 3.22
Attack rating (Inter / Shakhtar Donetsk): 1.50 / 1.26
Defence rating (Inter / Shakhtar Donetsk): 1.03 / 0.56

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Inter vs Shakhtar Donetsk score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 5.0% 5.6% 5.5% 3.0% 1.8% 1 5.2% 11.4% 8.5% 4.7% 2.8% 2 4.9% 8.1% 6.7% 3.7% 2.2% 3 2.6% 4.2% 3.5% 1.9% 1.2% 4+ 1.4% 2.4% 1.9% 1.1% 0.6%

Rows: Inter goals. Columns: Shakhtar Donetsk goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Inter vs Shakhtar Donetsk goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 95%

Over 1.5 84%

Over 2.5 62%

Over 3.5 40%

Both teams to score: 65%
No goals (0–0): 5%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Inter vs Shakhtar Donetsk

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Inter	36%	2.82
	Draw	25%	3.94
	Shakhtar Donetsk	39%	2.56
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	62%	1.60
	Under 2.5	38%	2.66
Both teams to score	Yes	65%	1.54
	No	35%	2.86
Double chance	1X (Inter or draw)	61%	1.64
	12 (either side)	75%	1.34
	X2 (draw or Shakhtar Donetsk)	64%	1.55
Handicap -1	Shakhtar Donetsk win by 2+	20%	4.91
	Push (exactly one goal)	19%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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