Aston Villa vs Viking Prediction & Betting Tips 21/10/2026

Aston Villa vs Viking preview

Aston Villa faces Viking with a 28% chance of winning compared to Viking's 48%. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, which has a 9% probability. Aston Villa's expected goals stand at 1.43, while Viking's is higher at 1.93.

Both teams to score has a 66% chance, and Over 2.5 goals sits at 65%. However, if Aston Villa can tighten their defense or improve their finishing, they might challenge Viking's advantage. Viking's recent form shows 4 wins in 5 matches, indicating they are in good shape.

Aston Villa vs Viking: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Aston Villa	Draw	Viking
Model	33%	23%	44%
Market	—	—	—
Published	33%	23%	44%
Edge	—	—	—

Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Aston Villa and Viking expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.69Aston Villa

1.97Viking

Total expected goals: 3.66
Attack rating (Aston Villa / Viking): 1.13 / 1.56
Defence rating (Aston Villa / Viking): 0.99 / 0.79

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Aston Villa vs Viking score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 3.4% 4.2% 5.0% 3.3% 2.5% 1 3.5% 9.4% 8.4% 5.5% 4.3% 2 3.7% 7.3% 7.1% 4.7% 3.6% 3 2.1% 4.1% 4.0% 2.6% 2.0% 4+ 1.3% 2.5% 2.5% 1.6% 1.3%

Rows: Aston Villa goals. Columns: Viking goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Aston Villa vs Viking goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 97%

Over 1.5 89%

Over 2.5 71%

Over 3.5 50%

Both teams to score: 71%
No goals (0–0): 3%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Aston Villa vs Viking

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Aston Villa	33%	3.04
	Draw	23%	4.30
	Viking	44%	2.28
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	71%	1.41
	Under 2.5	29%	3.42
Both teams to score	Yes	71%	1.41
	No	29%	3.45
Double chance	1X (Aston Villa or draw)	56%	1.78
	12 (either side)	77%	1.30
	X2 (draw or Viking)	67%	1.49
Handicap -1	Viking win by 2+	25%	4.00
	Push (exactly one goal)	19%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Compare the market for this pick

Where to bet on this match in Kenya

Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit

All betting sites

#	Welcome offer	Why it is here	Visit
1	50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply.	M-PESA Paybill 290059 Daily Jackpot Live betting	Get offer
2	First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply.	1,000+ events every day Live betting around the clock 30+ markets on live events	Get offer
3	100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply.	M-Pesa and Airtel Money deposits Live in-play betting Android and iOS app	Get offer
4	200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply.	1,000+ events every day 30+ markets on live events 24/7 customer support	Get offer