Newcastle United vs Aston Villa preview
In the Premier League fixture between Newcastle United and Aston Villa, the 1X2 probabilities show Newcastle United at 43% to win, while Aston Villa stands at 32%. The most likely scoreline from our model is 2-1, with an 8% chance. Both teams to score is projected at 70%, and there is a 68% chance of Over 2.5 goals.
Newcastle's expected goals are 1.66, compared to Aston Villa's 1.77. Recent form favors Newcastle, who have recorded 4 wins in their last 7 matches against Aston Villa, who have 2 wins in the same period. However, if Aston Villa's attack performs better than expected, it could change the outcome of the match.
Why this pick: Newcastle United vs Aston Villa
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Newcastle United 10, Aston Villa 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Newcastle United vs Aston Villa: model vs market
| Source | Newcastle United | Draw | Aston Villa |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 40% | 25% | 36% |
| Market | 45% | 25% | 30% |
| Published | 44% | 25% | 31% |
| Edge | -5% | -1% | +6% |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.17, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update.
Newcastle United vs Aston Villa odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Newcastle United, 50 snapshots since 2026-09-20.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Newcastle United | 2.10 | 2.12 | +0.02 |
| Draw | 3.82 | 3.73 | -0.09 |
| Aston Villa | 3.20 | 3.17 | -0.03 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Newcastle United and Aston Villa expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.50
- Attack rating (Newcastle United / Aston Villa)
- 1.05 / 1.25
- Defence rating (Newcastle United / Aston Villa)
- 1.12 / 1.09
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Newcastle United vs Aston Villa score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Newcastle United goals. Columns: Aston Villa goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Newcastle United vs Aston Villa goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 71%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Newcastle United vs Aston Villa
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Newcastle United | 44% | 2.30 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.97 | |
| Aston Villa | 31% | 3.20 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 70% | 1.44 |
| Under 2.5 | 30% | 3.28 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 71% | 1.41 |
| No | 29% | 3.43 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Newcastle United or draw) | 69% | 1.45 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.34 | |
| X2 (draw or Aston Villa) | 56% | 1.77 | |
| Handicap -1 | Newcastle United win by 2+ | 22% | 4.53 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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Newcastle United and Aston Villa recent form
Newcastle United
3W 1D 2L
Aston Villa
3W 2D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Newcastle United at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-2-0
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.67
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 3
- They have won 2 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Aston Villa away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-1
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 3
- They have won 1 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 5 matches.
- 60% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Newcastle United at home only, Aston Villa away only.
Newcastle United vs Aston Villa head-to-head
Last 7 meetings: Newcastle United 4 · draws 1 · Aston Villa 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-14 | Aston Villa | 1-3 | Newcastle United | England FA Cup |
| 2026-01-25 | Newcastle United | 0-2 | Aston Villa | Premier League |
| 2025-08-16 | Aston Villa | 0-0 | Newcastle United | Premier League |
| 2025-04-19 | Aston Villa | 4-1 | Newcastle United | Premier League |
| 2024-12-26 | Newcastle United | 3-0 | Aston Villa | Premier League |
| 2024-01-30 | Aston Villa | 1-3 | Newcastle United | Premier League |
| 2023-08-12 | Newcastle United | 5-1 | Aston Villa | Premier League |
Other Matchday 7 fixtures
- Everton vs Chelsea 2026-10-17
- Fulham v Hull City — match page 2026-10-17
- Manchester City vs Ipswich — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Brentford vs Liverpool 2026-10-17
- Bournemouth vs Sunderland — team news & stats 2026-10-18
- Brighton vs Crystal Palace 2026-10-18
- Leeds v Manchester United — match page 2026-10-18
- Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal — team news & stats 2026-10-18
Before and after this match
- Newcastle United, previous: Coventry vs Newcastle United prediction
- Aston Villa, previous: Aston Villa vs Fenerbahçe: odds and pick
- Aston Villa, next: Aston Villa vs Viking prediction