Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal preview
In the Premier League fixture between Nottingham Forest and Arsenal, the 1X2 probabilities show Nottingham Forest at 20%, a draw at 24%, and Arsenal at 56%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 1-2, occurring at a 9% chance. Nottingham Forest's recent form includes 2 losses and 1 win in their last 6 matches, while Arsenal has won 5 of their last 6 games.
Our model indicates a strong likelihood of Over 2.5 goals at 68% and both teams to score at 70%. Expected goals are 1.56 for Nottingham Forest and 1.89 for Arsenal. If Nottingham Forest can improve their form and capitalize on home advantage, they could challenge Arsenal's dominance, which has seen them win 4 of the last 6 head-to-head encounters.
Why this pick: Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Nottingham Forest 10, Arsenal 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal: model vs market
| Source | Nottingham Forest | Draw | Arsenal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 28% | 24% | 48% |
| Market | 16% | 24% | 59% |
| Published | 19% | 24% | 57% |
| Edge | +11% | 0% | -12% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.99 vs 1.42.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.66, recorded — the top price across the 11 books we record, each at its own last update.
Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Arsenal, 22 snapshots since 2026-10-04.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nottingham Forest | 5.30 | 5.88 | +0.58 |
| Draw | 3.85 | 3.90 | +0.05 |
| Arsenal | 1.58 | 1.60 | +0.02 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Nottingham Forest and Arsenal expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.41
- Attack rating (Nottingham Forest / Arsenal)
- 1.21 / 1.45
- Defence rating (Nottingham Forest / Arsenal)
- 1.11 / 0.76
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Nottingham Forest goals. Columns: Arsenal goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 68%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Nottingham Forest | 19% | 5.25 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.10 | |
| Arsenal | 57% | 1.77 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 68% | 1.48 |
| Under 2.5 | 32% | 3.08 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 68% | 1.46 |
| No | 32% | 3.15 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Nottingham Forest or draw) | 43% | 2.30 |
| 12 (either side) | 76% | 1.32 | |
| X2 (draw or Arsenal) | 81% | 1.24 | |
| Handicap -1 | Arsenal win by 2+ | 28% | 3.54 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
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Nottingham Forest and Arsenal recent form
Nottingham Forest
1W 2D 3L
Arsenal
5W 0D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Nottingham Forest at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-1-2
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.67
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 3
- They have won 1 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 5 matches.
Arsenal away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-0-1
- Win rate
- 67%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 3
- They have won 4 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 5 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Nottingham Forest at home only, Arsenal away only.
Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Nottingham Forest 0 · draws 2 · Arsenal 4.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-17 | Nottingham Forest | 0-0 | Arsenal | Premier League |
| 2025-09-13 | Arsenal | 3-0 | Nottingham Forest | Premier League |
| 2025-02-26 | Nottingham Forest | 0-0 | Arsenal | Premier League |
| 2024-11-23 | Arsenal | 3-0 | Nottingham Forest | Premier League |
| 2024-01-30 | Nottingham Forest | 1-2 | Arsenal | Premier League |
| 2023-08-12 | Arsenal | 2-1 | Nottingham Forest | Premier League |
Other Matchday 7 fixtures
- Fulham v Hull City — match page 2026-10-17
- Manchester City vs Ipswich — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Brentford vs Liverpool 2026-10-17
- Newcastle United v Aston Villa — match page 2026-10-17
- Bournemouth vs Sunderland — team news & stats 2026-10-18
- Brighton vs Crystal Palace 2026-10-18
- Leeds v Manchester United — match page 2026-10-18
- Tottenham vs Coventry 2026-10-19
Before and after this match
- Nottingham Forest, previous: Crystal Palace – Nottingham Forest, 2026-10-11
- Arsenal, previous: Arsenal – Lille, 2026-10-13
- Arsenal, next: Bayern Munich – Arsenal, 2026-10-21