Why this pick: Arsenal vs Lille
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Arsenal 10, Lille 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Arsenal vs Lille: model vs market
| Source | Arsenal | Draw | Lille |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 64% | 22% | 15% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 64% | 22% | 15% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.13 vs 0.95.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Arsenal and Lille expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.08
- Attack rating (Arsenal / Lille)
- 1.21 / 0.99
- Defence rating (Arsenal / Lille)
- 0.76 / 0.94
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Arsenal vs Lille score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Arsenal goals. Columns: Lille goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Arsenal vs Lille goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 55%
- No goals (0–0)
- 6%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Arsenal vs Lille
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Arsenal | 64% | 1.57 |
| Draw | 22% | 4.62 | |
| Lille | 15% | 6.77 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 59% | 1.68 |
| Under 2.5 | 41% | 2.46 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55% | 1.82 |
| No | 45% | 2.22 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Arsenal or draw) | 85% | 1.17 |
| 12 (either side) | 78% | 1.28 | |
| X2 (draw or Lille) | 36% | 2.75 | |
| Handicap -1 | Arsenal win by 2+ | 41% | 2.45 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Arsenal and Lille recent form
Arsenal
5W 0D 1L
Lille
3W 1D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
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