Arsenal vs Lille Prediction & Betting Tips 13/10/2026

Why this pick: Arsenal vs Lille

Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Arsenal 10, Lille 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.

ArsenalLille

2.11 xG per 90 1.36

2.01 npxG per 90 1.36

10.8 PPDA 13.1

12.1 Deep completions per 90 8.2

2.14 xPTS per 90 1.52

xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.

Arsenal vs Lille: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Arsenal	Draw	Lille
Model	62%	22%	16%
Market	80%	14%	6%
Published	75%	16%	9%
Edge	-4%	+2%	+2%

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.10 vs 0.97.
Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Arsenal vs Lille odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Arsenal, 14 snapshots since 2026-10-07.

Opened 1.25Now 1.21 -0.04

Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
Selection	First	Latest	Move
Arsenal	1.25	1.21	-0.04
Draw	5.55	7.00	+1.45
Lille	11.00	15.00	+4.00

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Arsenal and Lille expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.10Arsenal

0.97Lille

Total expected goals: 3.06
Attack rating (Arsenal / Lille): 1.24 / 0.99
Defence rating (Arsenal / Lille): 0.77 / 0.90

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Arsenal vs Lille score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 5.6% 3.6% 2.2% 0.7% 0.2% 1 8.8% 10.4% 4.6% 1.5% 0.4% 2 10.3% 9.9% 4.8% 1.5% 0.5% 3 7.2% 6.9% 3.4% 1.1% 0.3% 4+ 6.1% 5.9% 2.9% 0.9% 0.3%

Rows: Arsenal goals. Columns: Lille goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Arsenal vs Lille goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 94%

Over 1.5 82%

Over 2.5 59%

Over 3.5 37%

Both teams to score: 55%
No goals (0–0): 6%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Arsenal vs Lille

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Arsenal	75%	1.32
	Draw	16%	6.32
	Lille	9%	11.51
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	59%	1.69
	Under 2.5	41%	2.44
Both teams to score	Yes	55%	1.81
	No	45%	2.23
Double chance	1X (Arsenal or draw)	91%	1.10
	12 (either side)	84%	1.19
	X2 (draw or Lille)	25%	4.08
Handicap -1	Arsenal win by 2+	40%	2.52
	Push (exactly one goal)	23%	—