RasenBallsport Leipzig vs PSV Eindhoven: model vs market
| Source | RasenBallsport Leipzig | Draw | PSV Eindhoven |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 39% | 20% | 41% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 39% | 20% | 41% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
RasenBallsport Leipzig and PSV Eindhoven expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 4.83
- Attack rating (RasenBallsport Leipzig / PSV Eindhoven)
- 1.36 / 1.79
- Defence rating (RasenBallsport Leipzig / PSV Eindhoven)
- 1.08 / 0.94
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
RasenBallsport Leipzig vs PSV Eindhoven score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: RasenBallsport Leipzig goals. Columns: PSV Eindhoven goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
RasenBallsport Leipzig vs PSV Eindhoven goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 83%
- No goals (0–0)
- 1%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for RasenBallsport Leipzig vs PSV Eindhoven
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | RasenBallsport Leipzig | 39% | 2.55 |
| Draw | 20% | 5.10 | |
| PSV Eindhoven | 41% | 2.43 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 86% | 1.16 |
| Under 2.5 | 14% | 7.16 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 83% | 1.20 |
| No | 17% | 6.02 | |
| Double chance | 1X (RasenBallsport Leipzig or draw) | 59% | 1.70 |
| 12 (either side) | 80% | 1.24 | |
| X2 (draw or PSV Eindhoven) | 61% | 1.64 | |
| Handicap -1 | PSV Eindhoven win by 2+ | 25% | 4.02 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 16% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
|
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| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
RasenBallsport Leipzig and PSV Eindhoven recent form
RasenBallsport Leipzig
3W 0D 3L
PSV Eindhoven
4W 1D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
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