Updated

UEFA Champions League · League Stage - 2

RasenBallsport Leipzig vs PSV Eindhoven

· Leipzig Red Bull Arena, Leipzig· Referee Nick Walsh

Full time1 – 0

Alin prediction was RasenBallsport Leipzig to win

Bblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 2 – 1

6% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
RasenBallsport LeipzigDrawPSV Eindhoven

RasenBallsport Leipzig vs PSV Eindhoven: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceRasenBallsport LeipzigDrawPSV Eindhoven
Model39%20%41%
Market60%20%20%
Published55%20%25%
Edge-5%0%+5%

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

RasenBallsport Leipzig vs PSV Eindhoven odds movement

Median bookmaker price on RasenBallsport Leipzig, 14 snapshots since 2026-10-07.

Opened 2.00Now 1.60 -0.40
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
RasenBallsport Leipzig2.001.60-0.40
Draw4.004.85+0.85
PSV Eindhoven3.204.72+1.52

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

RasenBallsport Leipzig and PSV Eindhoven expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.37RasenBallsport Leipzig
2.41PSV Eindhoven
Total expected goals
4.78
Attack rating (RasenBallsport Leipzig / PSV Eindhoven)
1.52 / 1.74
Defence rating (RasenBallsport Leipzig / PSV Eindhoven)
1.09 / 0.83

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

RasenBallsport Leipzig vs PSV Eindhoven score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 1.3% 1.5% 2.4% 2.0% 2.1% 1 1.5% 5.3% 5.8% 4.6% 5.0% 2 2.4% 5.7% 6.8% 5.5% 5.9% 3 1.9% 4.5% 5.4% 4.3% 4.6% 4+ 1.9% 4.6% 5.6% 4.5% 4.8%

Rows: RasenBallsport Leipzig goals. Columns: PSV Eindhoven goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

RasenBallsport Leipzig vs PSV Eindhoven goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 99%
Over 1.5 96%
Over 2.5 86%
Over 3.5 70%
Both teams to score
83%
No goals (0–0)
1%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for RasenBallsport Leipzig vs PSV Eindhoven

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2RasenBallsport Leipzig55%1.82
Draw20%5.06
PSV Eindhoven25%3.93
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.585%1.17
Under 2.515%6.89
Both teams to scoreYes83%1.21
No17%5.86
Double chance1X (RasenBallsport Leipzig or draw)75%1.34
12 (either side)80%1.25
X2 (draw or PSV Eindhoven)45%2.21
Handicap -1RasenBallsport Leipzig win by 2+23%4.29
Push (exactly one goal)16%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

RasenBallsport Leipzig and PSV Eindhoven recent form

RasenBallsport Leipzig 3W 0D 3L
PSV Eindhoven 4W 1D 1L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Injuries & availability

RasenBallsport Leipzig absences

  • A. Kone off the roster
  • A. Ouedraogo shoulder injury
  • C. Baumgartner thigh injury
  • L. Zingerle off the roster
  • M. Guiu hamstring injury

PSV Eindhoven absences

  • A. Nagalo injury
  • A. Plea surgery
  • J. Schouten knee injury
  • K. Sildillia surgery
  • P. Wanner foot injury
  • R. Pepi injury
  • S. Lammers lacking match fitness
  • S. Ouaissa muscle injury

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Expected lineups

RasenBallsport Leipzig lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 26 M. Vandevoordt
  2. 22 D. Raum
  3. 23 C. Lukeba
  4. 4 W. Orbán
  5. 17 R. Baku
  6. 6 E. Banzuzi
  7. 21 N. El Aynaoui
  8. 7 A. Nusa
  9. 28 C. Nkunku
  10. 10 B. Gruda
  11. 40 Rômulo

Bench: Ø. Nyland, A. Koné, M. Estève, J. Bakayoko, N. Seiwald, L. Klostermann, R. Reitz, T. Gomis, A. Maksimović, Max Finkgräfe, B. Henrichs

PSV Eindhoven lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 32 M. Kovář
  2. 18 F. Kostić
  3. 4 A. Obispo
  4. 2 L. Geertruida
  5. 8 S. Dest
  6. 17 Mauro Júnior
  7. 24 K. Sano
  8. 7 R. van Bommel
  9. 20 G. Til
  10. 5 I. Perišić
  11. 21 S. Mijnans

Bench: N. Olij, Yarek Gasiorowski, R. Flamingo, E. Bajraktarevic, M. Hansen, D. Man, N. Fernandez, A. Santos, A. Bouhamdi, S. Cornecion, T. Smolenaars

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