ADO Den Haag vs PSV Eindhoven preview
In the upcoming match between ADO Den Haag and PSV Eindhoven, the 1X2 probabilities show ADO Den Haag at 12%, a draw at 16%, and PSV Eindhoven at 72%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 1-2, which occurs at an 8% chance.
The model also indicates a high likelihood of Over 2.5 goals at 78% and both teams to score at 71%. ADO Den Haag's expected goals stand at 1.41, while PSV Eindhoven's is significantly higher at 2.69. However, ADO Den Haag's recent form of D-L-L-D-L-L could impact their performance against a stronger PSV Eindhoven team, who have a recent record of W-L-W-D-W-W.
ADO Den Haag vs PSV Eindhoven: model vs market
| Source | ADO Den Haag | Draw | PSV Eindhoven |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 20% | 20% | 60% |
| Market | 11% | 15% | 74% |
| Published | 13% | 16% | 71% |
| Edge | +9% | +5% | -14% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.46 vs 1.39.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.30, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update.
ADO Den Haag vs PSV Eindhoven odds movement
Median bookmaker price on PSV Eindhoven, 24 snapshots since 2026-10-03.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| ADO Den Haag | 9.20 | 8.45 | -0.75 |
| Draw | 6.25 | 6.40 | +0.15 |
| PSV Eindhoven | 1.25 | 1.25 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
ADO Den Haag and PSV Eindhoven expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.85
- Attack rating (ADO Den Haag / PSV Eindhoven)
- 1.01 / 1.49
- Defence rating (ADO Den Haag / PSV Eindhoven)
- 1.11 / 0.77
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
ADO Den Haag vs PSV Eindhoven score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: ADO Den Haag goals. Columns: PSV Eindhoven goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
ADO Den Haag vs PSV Eindhoven goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 69%
- No goals (0–0)
- 3%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for ADO Den Haag vs PSV Eindhoven
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | ADO Den Haag | 13% | 7.58 |
| Draw | 16% | 6.29 | |
| PSV Eindhoven | 71% | 1.41 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 74% | 1.35 |
| Under 2.5 | 26% | 3.84 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 69% | 1.44 |
| No | 31% | 3.27 | |
| Double chance | 1X (ADO Den Haag or draw) | 29% | 3.44 |
| 12 (either side) | 84% | 1.19 | |
| X2 (draw or PSV Eindhoven) | 87% | 1.15 | |
| Handicap -1 | PSV Eindhoven win by 2+ | 40% | 2.50 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
ADO Den Haag and PSV Eindhoven recent form
ADO Den Haag
0W 3D 3L
PSV Eindhoven
3W 1D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
ADO Den Haag at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-1-2
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.33
- Goals against / match
- 2.67
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 3
- They have won 0 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.3 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- 50% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
PSV Eindhoven away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-0-1
- Win rate
- 75%
- Goals for / match
- 3.25
- Goals against / match
- 1.50
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 5 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 3.4 goals per match.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: ADO Den Haag at home only, PSV Eindhoven away only.
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
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- Telstar vs Feyenoord — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Sparta Rotterdam vs Willem II 2026-10-17
- PEC Zwolle v GO Ahead Eagles — match page 2026-10-18
- Cambuur vs AZ Alkmaar 2026-10-18
- Groningen v Ajax — match page 2026-10-18
- NEC Nijmegen v Fortuna Sittard — match page 2026-10-18
- Twente vs Utrecht — team news & stats 2026-10-18
Before and after this match
- ADO Den Haag, previous: Telstar vs ADO Den Haag prediction
- ADO Den Haag, next: Excelsior '31 vs ADO Den Haag prediction
- PSV Eindhoven, previous: RasenBallsport Leipzig v PSV Eindhoven analysis
- PSV Eindhoven, next: FC Porto vs PSV Eindhoven: odds and pick