Cambuur vs AZ Alkmaar preview
In the Eredivisie match between Cambuur and AZ Alkmaar, the 1X2 probabilities show AZ Alkmaar at 64%, while Cambuur sits at 16%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 1-2, with a 10% chance. The expected goals are 1.31 for Cambuur and 1.87 for AZ Alkmaar, indicating a potential for a competitive match.
Both teams to score has a probability of 63%, and Over 2.5 goals is at 62%. However, if Cambuur's recent form improves beyond their last two losses, they could challenge AZ Alkmaar more effectively. AZ Alkmaar's form shows two wins in their last three matches, which may bolster their chances of securing a victory.
Cambuur vs AZ Alkmaar: model vs market
| Source | Cambuur | Draw | AZ Alkmaar |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 26% | 25% | 50% |
| Market | 16% | 19% | 65% |
| Published | 18% | 20% | 61% |
| Edge | +10% | +6% | -15% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.87 vs 1.31.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.51, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update.
Cambuur vs AZ Alkmaar odds movement
Median bookmaker price on AZ Alkmaar, 24 snapshots since 2026-10-03.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cambuur | 7.30 | 5.90 | -1.40 |
| Draw | 5.05 | 4.92 | -0.12 |
| AZ Alkmaar | 1.36 | 1.44 | +0.08 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Cambuur and AZ Alkmaar expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.18
- Attack rating (Cambuur / AZ Alkmaar)
- 0.93 / 1.07
- Defence rating (Cambuur / AZ Alkmaar)
- 1.17 / 0.79
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Cambuur vs AZ Alkmaar score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Cambuur goals. Columns: AZ Alkmaar goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Cambuur vs AZ Alkmaar goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 63%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Cambuur vs AZ Alkmaar
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Cambuur | 18% | 5.45 |
| Draw | 20% | 4.90 | |
| AZ Alkmaar | 61% | 1.63 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 62% | 1.62 |
| Under 2.5 | 38% | 2.60 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63% | 1.59 |
| No | 37% | 2.68 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Cambuur or draw) | 39% | 2.58 |
| 12 (either side) | 80% | 1.26 | |
| X2 (draw or AZ Alkmaar) | 82% | 1.22 | |
| Handicap -1 | AZ Alkmaar win by 2+ | 29% | 3.50 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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Cambuur and AZ Alkmaar recent form
Cambuur
2W 2D 2L
AZ Alkmaar
3W 1D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Cambuur at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-3
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 1.50
- Goals against / match
- 3.25
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 1 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- 50% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
AZ Alkmaar away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-0-1
- Win rate
- 75%
- Goals for / match
- 2.25
- Goals against / match
- 1.25
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 6 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 2.6 goals per match.
- They average 3.0 goals per game on the road against 2.2 at home.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 7 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Cambuur at home only, AZ Alkmaar away only.
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
- Heerenveen vs Excelsior — team news & stats 2026-10-16
- ADO Den Haag vs PSV Eindhoven 2026-10-17
- Telstar vs Feyenoord — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Sparta Rotterdam vs Willem II 2026-10-17
- PEC Zwolle v GO Ahead Eagles — match page 2026-10-18
- Groningen v Ajax — match page 2026-10-18
- NEC Nijmegen v Fortuna Sittard — match page 2026-10-18
- Twente vs Utrecht — team news & stats 2026-10-18
Before and after this match
- Cambuur, previous: PEC Zwolle vs Cambuur: odds and pick
- Cambuur, next: Kloetinge vs Cambuur: odds and pick
- AZ Alkmaar, previous: AZ Alkmaar v Hapoel Beer Sheva analysis
- AZ Alkmaar, next: Ararat-Armenia – AZ Alkmaar, 2026-10-22