Sparta Rotterdam vs Willem II preview
In the Eredivisie fixture between Sparta Rotterdam and Willem II, the 1X2 probabilities show Sparta Rotterdam at 57% to win, while Willem II sits at 21%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 2-1, which aligns with the expected goals of 1.95 for Sparta Rotterdam and 1.59 for Willem II.
Both teams to score and Over 2.5 goals are both projected at 69%. However, recent form could impact the outcome, as Sparta Rotterdam has struggled with D-L-L-D-L-D in their last six matches, while Willem II has L-L-D-L-D-L. The confidence grade is C, indicating some uncertainty in the predictions.
Sparta Rotterdam vs Willem II: model vs market
| Source | Sparta Rotterdam | Draw | Willem II |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 49% | 23% | 28% |
| Market | 59% | 21% | 20% |
| Published | 57% | 22% | 22% |
| Edge | -10% | +1% | +8% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.07 vs 1.53.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.63, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update.
Sparta Rotterdam vs Willem II odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Sparta Rotterdam, 24 snapshots since 2026-10-03.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sparta Rotterdam | 1.55 | 1.58 | +0.03 |
| Draw | 4.33 | 4.36 | +0.03 |
| Willem II | 5.40 | 4.78 | -0.62 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Sparta Rotterdam and Willem II expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.60
- Attack rating (Sparta Rotterdam / Willem II)
- 0.92 / 0.71
- Defence rating (Sparta Rotterdam / Willem II)
- 1.44 / 1.26
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Sparta Rotterdam vs Willem II score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Sparta Rotterdam goals. Columns: Willem II goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Sparta Rotterdam vs Willem II goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 69%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Sparta Rotterdam vs Willem II
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sparta Rotterdam | 57% | 1.77 |
| Draw | 22% | 4.58 | |
| Willem II | 22% | 4.62 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 70% | 1.43 |
| Under 2.5 | 30% | 3.31 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 69% | 1.44 |
| No | 31% | 3.27 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Sparta Rotterdam or draw) | 78% | 1.28 |
| 12 (either side) | 78% | 1.28 | |
| X2 (draw or Willem II) | 43% | 2.30 | |
| Handicap -1 | Sparta Rotterdam win by 2+ | 29% | 3.40 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Sparta Rotterdam and Willem II recent form
Sparta Rotterdam
0W 3D 3L
Willem II
0W 2D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Sparta Rotterdam at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-2-2
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.25
- Goals against / match
- 2.50
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 1 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
Willem II away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-1-3
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 3.25
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 0 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
League matches this season before kick-off: Sparta Rotterdam at home only, Willem II away only.
Sparta Rotterdam vs Willem II head-to-head
Last 1 meetings: Sparta Rotterdam 1 · draws 0 · Willem II 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-18 | Willem II | 1-5 | Sparta Rotterdam | KNVB Beker |
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Before and after this match
- Sparta Rotterdam, previous: GO Ahead Eagles vs Sparta Rotterdam: odds and pick
- Sparta Rotterdam, next: Sparta Rotterdam vs Fortuna Sittard: odds and pick
- Willem II, previous: Utrecht v Willem II analysis
- Willem II, next: Helmond Sport v Willem II analysis