Helmond Sport vs Willem II Prediction & Betting Tips 27/10/2026

Helmond Sport vs Willem II preview

In the KNVB Beker fixture between Helmond Sport and Willem II, the 1X2 probabilities show Helmond Sport at 48% to win, while both teams have a 26% chance of a draw or Willem II winning. The most likely scoreline is 2-1 in favor of Helmond Sport, with a 10% probability.

Helmond Sport's expected goals stand at 1.68 compared to Willem II's 1.18, indicating a stronger attacking performance. However, recent form reveals Helmond Sport has only 2 wins in their last 6 matches, while Willem II has not won in their last 6 games. This inconsistency could affect the outcome, despite the statistical edge for Helmond Sport. The chances for Over 2.5 goals are at 54%, and both teams to score is at 58%.

Helmond Sport vs Willem II: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Helmond Sport	Draw	Willem II
Model	48%	26%	26%
Market	—	—	—
Published	48%	26%	26%
Edge	—	—	—

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.68 vs 1.18.
Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Helmond Sport and Willem II expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.68Helmond Sport

1.18Willem II

Total expected goals: 2.86
Attack rating (Helmond Sport / Willem II): 0.79 / 0.63
Defence rating (Helmond Sport / Willem II): 0.93 / 1.08

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Helmond Sport vs Willem II score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 6.9% 5.6% 4.0% 1.6% 0.6% 1 8.5% 12.5% 6.7% 2.6% 1.0% 2 8.1% 9.5% 5.6% 2.2% 0.8% 3 4.5% 5.3% 3.2% 1.2% 0.5% 4+ 2.8% 3.3% 1.9% 0.8% 0.3%

Rows: Helmond Sport goals. Columns: Willem II goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Helmond Sport vs Willem II goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 93%

Over 1.5 79%

Over 2.5 54%

Over 3.5 32%

Both teams to score: 58%
No goals (0–0): 7%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Helmond Sport vs Willem II

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Helmond Sport	48%	2.09
	Draw	26%	3.79
	Willem II	26%	3.88
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	54%	1.84
	Under 2.5	46%	2.20
Both teams to score	Yes	58%	1.74
	No	42%	2.35
Double chance	1X (Helmond Sport or draw)	74%	1.35
	12 (either side)	74%	1.36
	X2 (draw or Willem II)	52%	1.92
Handicap -1	Helmond Sport win by 2+	26%	3.83
	Push (exactly one goal)	22%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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