Helmond Sport vs NAC Breda preview
In the Eerste Divisie match between Helmond Sport and NAC Breda, the 1X2 probabilities show Helmond Sport at 22%, a draw at 21%, and NAC Breda at 58%. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, which has an 8% chance of occurring.
Both teams to score stands at 70%, while Over 2.5 goals is at 69%. Helmond Sport has expected goals of 1.74, slightly lower than NAC Breda's 1.79. Recent form shows Helmond Sport with a record of L-D-L-L-W-W, while NAC Breda has W-D-W-W-L-L. A deviation in performance could affect the expected outcomes.
Helmond Sport vs NAC Breda: model vs market
| Source | Helmond Sport | Draw | NAC Breda |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 37% | 24% | 39% |
| Market | 17% | 20% | 64% |
| Published | 22% | 21% | 58% |
| Edge | +20% | +4% | -25% |
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.50, recorded — the top price across the 6 books we record, each at its own last update.
Helmond Sport and NAC Breda expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.53
- Attack rating (Helmond Sport / NAC Breda)
- 0.91 / 1.13
- Defence rating (Helmond Sport / NAC Breda)
- 1.08 / 1.07
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Helmond Sport vs NAC Breda score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Helmond Sport goals. Columns: NAC Breda goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Helmond Sport vs NAC Breda goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 70%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Helmond Sport vs NAC Breda
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Helmond Sport | 22% | 4.61 |
| Draw | 21% | 4.83 | |
| NAC Breda | 58% | 1.74 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 69% | 1.46 |
| Under 2.5 | 31% | 3.18 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 70% | 1.44 |
| No | 30% | 3.29 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Helmond Sport or draw) | 42% | 2.36 |
| 12 (either side) | 79% | 1.26 | |
| X2 (draw or NAC Breda) | 78% | 1.28 | |
| Handicap -1 | NAC Breda win by 2+ | 21% | 4.76 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Helmond Sport and NAC Breda recent form
Helmond Sport
2W 1D 3L
NAC Breda
3W 1D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Helmond Sport at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-3-0
- Win rate
- 40%
- Goals for / match
- 2.20
- Goals against / match
- 1.40
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 5
- They have won 2 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
NAC Breda away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-2-1
- Win rate
- 40%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 5
- They have won 4 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 2.1 goals per match.
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Helmond Sport at home only, NAC Breda away only.
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
- VVV Venlo v Jong AZ — match page 2026-10-16
- Den Bosch vs FC OSS — team news & stats 2026-10-16
- FC Eindhoven vs Vitesse 2026-10-16
Before and after this match
- Helmond Sport, previous: FC OSS vs Helmond Sport: odds and pick
- NAC Breda, previous: NAC Breda vs MVV prediction